Pivotal Jobs Report Due Friday After Private Payrolls Show 'Hiring Hesitancy'

Wall Street is anticipating a pivotal jobs report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics set to be released Friday morning. Here's a look at what to watch in the report. 

What To Watch: The BLS will release its Employment Situation report on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Economists expect the report to show the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4%, per Trading Economics. 

Government employment has been trending upward, with an average monthly gain of 38,000 in 2024 and 32,000 government jobs added in January 2025. Wall Street will be watching to see if any DOGE-related cuts are detectable in the February report. 

Read Next: US Services Sector Unexpectedly Expands In February Despite Slowing Job Growth 

Government spending cuts and tariffs are expected to weigh on the job market in the months ahead. Comerica Economics estimates that DOGE cuts will be a 250,000 to 500,000 cumulative headwind to employment in the next six months, split between private employers who service the government and the public sector. 

What Else: The ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday showed a significant slowdown in hiring with private employers creating 77,000 new jobs in February, the smallest number in seven months and well below forecasts of 140,000.

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, pointed to job cuts in trade, transportation and utilities as evidence of drag resulting from tariff fears. 

Comerica forecasts Friday's jobs report to show employment up 150,000 with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% from 4.0% in January. 

"After the ADP report, risks to Comerica's forecast are to the downside," Adams said. 

Markets Await: All three major averages ended Thursday's session lower as tariffs and geopolitical concerns weighed on investor sentiment. 

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, tracking the S&P 500, closed down 1.78% at $572.71 and the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, ended the day 2.75% lower at $488.20 on Thursday.  

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