Nvidia Suffers $10 Billion Setback, AI Chip Sanctions Spell Trouble For 3 ETFs

The U.S. semiconductor sector is going through nail-biting times as further potential sanctions on the export of artificial intelligence chips to China loom.

What Happened: Nvidia NVDA was recently left with a bitter taste after its big tech customers deferred billions of dollars in orders.

As geopolitics shakes up the industry, investors are monitoring the ramifications for exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, tied to the sector. Here are three such ETFs, among many others, that are caught in the crosshairs:

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH: This ETF’s top holdings include Nvidia, Broadcom AVGO, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM and Advanced Micro Devices AMD. Each company is deeply involved in AI chip production and data center infrastructure. This makes the ETF particularly vulnerable to regulatory changes in this space.

• iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX: This ETF boasts holdings in Nvidia, Intel INTC, and Broadcom. Potential export restrictions could disrupt these companies' revenue streams, naturally causing ripples in the ETF's performance.

• SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF XSD: This ETF has an equal-weighted structure that diversifies the exposure across semiconductor firms. Its significant allocations in Nvidia, AMD, and Micron Technology MU make it vulnerable to export restrictions.

Also Read: What’s Going On With Marvell Technology (MRVL) Stock?

Nvidia Faces Double Whammy

The Biden administration is reportedly considering a new set of sanctions over the next few days. According to a Bloomberg report, the new sanctions may include a three-tier framework targeting AI chip exports, aiming to curb China's access to advanced technology. These restrictions could take effect before Donald Trump assumes office on Jan. 20.

Nvidia, a sector heavyweight, faces a double whammy. In addition to the potential export restrictions, Nvidia's hyperscaler customers — Microsoft MSFT, Amazon’s AMZN AWS, Alphabet GOOGL, and Meta META — recently postponed $10 billion worth of orders for its Blackwell GB200 data center racks due to overheating issues. This disruption adds to the challenges Nvidia faces, as up to 50% of its chips may be destined for markets that could fall under the new export rules, according to D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria, as reported by Reuters.

According to Defiance ETFs CEO Sylvia Jablonski, “Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, have significantly impacted the semiconductor industry. Each time we've heard a report about a potential US ban on semiconductors from the White House we've seen NVDA and all other semiconductor stocks fall.”

Long-Term Outlook For ETFs

While the short-term outlook for semiconductor ETFs remains uncertain, the long-term prospects offer significant opportunities. AI, quantum computing and other technological advancements are expected to drive substantial demand for advanced semiconductors. Despite geopolitical headwinds, semiconductor-focused ETFs could benefit from the ongoing innovation and market growth.

Summing up the sector's potential, Jablonski said: "Any kind of high tech, innovative trend has its risks and rewards. Investors should understand that innovation takes time, and that price action is often volatile proceeding it. However, if the innovations like AI, Quantum computing come to fruition, the opportunities for investors are endless!"

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