Will Apple's Next Bite Dethrone Samsung? An Analyst Says Yes

It's already the biggest company by market cap, but it might end up being the "world's largest smartphone brand by 2023" if TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is right.

What Happened: Kuo, a known Apple Inc AAPL analyst, said in a Monday blog post that the Cupertino, California-based company is expected to ship about 220–225 million units in 2023, edging out Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.'s SSNLF smartphone shipments, which were reportedly reduced to 220 million units this year.

Kuo suggested that if Apple maintained its current momentum, it might not just match but surpass Samsung’s smartphone shipments, staking its claim as the top dog in the industry.

Despite the buzz of delays clouding the launch of iPhone 15, particularly the iPhone 15 Pro Max, Kuo’s dive into supply chain dynamics seemed to incinerate any concerns. Mass shipments for the iPhone 15 Pro Max are expected to kick off this week, and Apple was simultaneously ramping up shipments of its legacy models, the analyst said in his blog post.

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Apple’s bullish roadmap extends beyond 2023 with a shipment target of 250 million units for 2024 — to that end, the analyst saw a 5% to 10% year-over-year growth rate for Apple during that time frame.

In comparison, Samsung’s conservative internal forecasts for the same year offer Apple a distinct edge, Kuo said, likely extending its newfound lead into 2024.

Supply Chain Woes: Challenges are a looming cloud over the iPhone 15 series, with fears of shipment cuts making rounds in the market. However, Kuo projects a more reassuring outlook, saying he expected Apple to ship 80 million iPhone 15 series units, dismissing the more conservative 70 to 80 million unit estimates.

With Samsung’s conservative future outlook and Apple’s aggressive shipment goals, the Cupertino-based company seems ready to wear the crown. The next few years could be a watershed moment for Apple, Kuo said, solidifying its supremacy in the smartphone landscape.

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