Exxon's Predictions For 2050: Oil And Gas Continue To Dominate, Climate Goals At Risk

Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM is sharing a concerning projection that the worldwide efforts to reduce emissions might fall short of limiting global warming to the desired 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial norms by 2050. This is attributed to fast-paced economic growth, particularly in developing nations.

Emissions Figures And Energy Outlook

Exxon’s latest Energy Outlook estimates that carbon dioxide emissions linked to energy will hit a remarkable 25 billion metric tons by 2050. This projection overshadows the 11 billion tons benchmarks set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to maintain a 2-degree scenario.

The report also highlights that although emissions are projected to decline by 25% by 2050 due to the growing adoption of lower-emission energy sources, more substantial efforts are needed to stay within the emission-reduction targets.

Role Of Oil And Natural Gas In Future Energy Mix

Exxon’s outlook underscores that oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant role in fulfilling global energy needs, accounting for 54% of energy requirements by 2050. While oil usage is expected to decline in personal transportation, it remains crucial for vital industrial processes and heavy-duty transport, supporting sectors like shipping, long-haul trucking, and aviation.

“If every new passenger car sold in the world in 2035 were an electric vehicle, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day, the same as it was around 2010,” the Exxon report states.

Furthermore, the report projects a more than 20% increase in natural gas utilization by 2050. This growth is attributed to its reliability and lower emissions, making it a preferred source for electricity generation, hydrogen production, and heating in both industrial processes and buildings.

U.S. energy stocks, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE, have outperformed the rest of the sectors in the S&P 500 index in August 2023 and have showcased a 140% surge over the past three years.

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Exxon’s Climate Forecasts Hold An Impressive Track Record

Believe it or not, Exxon’s historical projections about climate have demonstrated remarkable accuracy, as Bloomberg reported.

An evaluation of the company’s forecasts spanning from 1977 to 2014, conducted by scholars at the University of Miami, including Geoffrey Supran, revealed that Exxon’s scientists accurately predicted the increase in global temperatures attributed to CO2 emissions. Notably, a study from 1985 boasted an impressive accuracy rating of 99%.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods in 2021 testified before Congress, and affirmed that the company has previously recognized the risks linked to climate change.

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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