Tech Stocks Tumble As Small Caps, REITs, Gold Miners Rally; Soft June Inflation Ignites Rate Cut Expectations: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

A lower-than-expected inflation report for June caused wild market reactions, leading to a surge in traders’ expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and boosting assets that are particularly sensitive to high interest rates.

As the annual inflation rate slowed from 3.3% to 3%, below the predicted 3.1%, and the monthly reading indicated the first contraction (-0.1%) in four years, traders swiftly increased their odds of a September rate cut, now placing a 92% chance.

Surprisingly, large-cap indices such as the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell, dropping 0.9% and 2.1% respectively, with the latter eyeing its worst daily performance of 2024, previously seen on April 30. These reactions suggest that market participants had likely already priced in rate cut expectations into tech stock valuations and are now rotating from top-performing sectors to laggards.

The outperformance of the S&P 500 real estate sector over tech by more than 5 percentage points marked the largest one-day relative change in over four years, indicating a potential sectoral shift.

Other assets making significant moves included small caps, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM up 3.3%, its strongest one-day return since mid-December 2023; gold, up 1.7%; and long-dated Treasury bonds, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT rallying 1.5%.

Equity industries showing notable growth were those positively impacted by the prospects of lower interest rates. Homebuilders, tracked by the SPDR Homebuilders ETF XHB, were up 6.7% for the day, their strongest one-day performance since mid-December 2023. Regional banks, represented by the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE, rose 3.4%. Gold miners, tracked by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX, climbed 2.4%, on track for their highest close since April 2022.

Bitcoin BTC/USD was flat at $57,800.

Thursday’s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs

Major Indices	Price	1-day %chg
Russell 2000	2,120.27	3.4%
Dow Jones	39,754.72	0.1 %
S&P 500	5,583.95	-0.9%
Nasdaq 100	20,246.76	-2.1%

Updated at 1:05 PM ET

According to Benzinga Pro data:

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was 0.9% lower to $556.201.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA inched 0.1% higher to $397.59.
The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (ARCA: QQQ) tumbled 2.1% to $492.83.
Sector-wise, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund XLRE outperformed, up by 2.5%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK lagged, falling 2.4%.

Thursday’s Stock Movers

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) fell over 6%, after Bloomberg flagged delays in the Robitaxi project.
Top-performers within real estate stocks were Communications Corporation SBA Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. ARE, both up 6.5%.
PepsiCo Inc. PEP was 0.4% higher, following quarterly earnings.
Other stocks reacting to earnings were Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, ConAgra Brands Inc. CAG, up 0.4% and down 2% respectively.
Caesars Entertainment Inc. CZR rose 6.7%.