Goldman Sachs Warns Apple Investors Against Reading Too Much Into Worrying iPhone Data

Apple Inc.‘s AAPL latest shipment data from China paints a concerning picture: foreign-branded phone shipments — a strong indicator of iPhone sales — dropped 21% year-over-year in January.

That’s a sharp reversal from December's slight growth.

While the decline adds to ongoing concerns over Apple's market position in China, a closer look at the numbers suggests the worst may be behind the company.

In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng highlighted the latest data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. Overall mobile phone shipments in China fell 14% year-over-year to 27.2 million units in January, the biggest decline since September's 24% drop.

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Is Apple Still Losing Ground in China?

The numbers reflect a clear trend: Apple's sales in China have been under pressure for months. From September to November 2024, foreign-branded phone shipments in the country collapsed by more than 40% annually each month, indicating that Apple was losing share to domestic competitors such as Huawei Technologies Co. and Xiaomi Corp. XIACY

Yet, the January figures offer a silver lining. While still negative on a yearly basis, the 21% year-over-year decline represents an improvement over the 40%-47% plunges seen in previous months.

Goldman Sachs notes that December and January results “may have benefited from inventory build” ahead of the implementation of national consumer smartphone subsidies on Jan. 20.

Additionally, foreign-branded shipments rose 17% month-over-month from December, suggesting some stabilization—though still below the typical seasonal jump of 51% seen in past years.

Foreign-branded phones held a 16% market share, up from 11% in December 2024, though still below the historical 17% in January 2024 and 48% in January 2023.

Goldman Sachs Holds ‘Buy’ Rating, Keeps $294 Price Target On AAPL

Despite the weak shipment data, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on AAPL with a 12-month price target of $294, implying a 37.7% upside from its latest closing price of $213.49. The valuation is based on 33x projected earnings for the next 12 months plus one year.

Apple shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday, reflecting cautious sentiment around the data.

The Cupertino-based tech giant is down 14.5% year-to-date, on track for the worst quarter since early 2022.

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