September Retail Sales Exceed Estimates, Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected

Retail sales in September exceeded expectations, highlighting strong consumer spending and reinforcing positive signals for broader economic growth as the third quarter wrapped up.

Simultaneously, the latest labor market data saw a decline in jobless claims rose during the week ending Oct. 12.

September Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights

• Retail sales increased by 0.4% in September from the previous month, surpassing both the 0.3% economist consensus, as per TradingEconomics, and the 0.1% growth in August.
• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales decelerated, down to 1.7% compared to 2.2% in August.
• Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales grew 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% increase and the upwardly revised 0.2% growth in August.
• Stripping out gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales climbed by a robust 0.7% in September, a sharp improvement from the upwardly revised 0.3% gain in August.
• Among spending categories, the largest monthly gains were recorded in miscellaneous store retailers, up 4%, and clothing & clothing accessories stores, up 1.5%.
• Conversely, gasoline station, electronics and appliance stores experienced the steepest monthly decline, with sales dropping by 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Key Highlights

• Initial jobless claims came in at 241,000, coming in below a consensus estimate of 260,000 claims, per TradingEconomics, and the prior week’s upwardly revised 260,000 figure.
• The four-week average of claims rose from 231,500 to 236,250.
• Continuing claims, reflecting those still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, rose slightly to 1.867 million, remaining above the 1.87 million expected.
• States hardest hit by the increase in jobless claims include Georgia, where claims rose by 3,100 and Pennsylvania, with a surge of 1,300.
• Surprisingly, Florida recorded a decline of over 3,000 claims during the week, showing the Hurricane Milton had no major disruption on the region’s labor market.

Market Reactions: Stocks Rise Fueled By Chipmakers, Dollar Strengthens On ECB Cut

Stocks rallied in premarket trading on Thursday, driven by a tech-led surge that boosted futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 1%, with semiconductor stocks leading the charge. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM soared nearly 9% on strong earnings, propelling the sector higher.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX was up 3% on the news.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened by 0.2% following the European Central Bank's 25-basis-point rate cut, as the ECB signaled that disinflation was “well on track.”

Treasury yields rose in response to stronger-than-expected retail sales and lower-than-predicted jobless claims.

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