ETF Rewind – Retest in Progress | Week 33 | 08.19.11

Price was again all over the map after falling back from a 1/3rd+ retrace, setting the market up for a high-probability retest of the August lows. Whether or not that holds will continue to rely strongly on news flow, with a GDP report and Jackson Hole press conference on deck.

In the end, the S&P 500 (SPY) finished down -4.6% for the week, while both Precious Metals (DBP) and Treasuries (TLT) finished well over +5% higher. Price is becoming oversold in the equities camp, but not so much as to insulate against a strong momentum run lower, in my opinion.  On the other hand, the VIX is again quite bullishly over-stretched to the upside; however, that rubber band has become quite loose….

[Week 34 Economic Calendar]

Source: Mrkt_Commentary subscription service; prior weekly posts.

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