We Think The Low Is In And It's Time to Buy

Author: Gary Harloff

Covestor model: Opportunistic ETF

We believe the S&P500 low is in and it is time to buy. We think the general low occurred around 9/21/11 at 1,166. We see a broad, basing action and current upswing trend evident.

Recently, the sell offs and upswings have been quite vigorous with several hundred point intra-day moves of the Dow during the last ten weeks. These huge point moves have made investing difficult.

We recently examined international ETFs and found strong buying interest in Singapore (EWS), Canada (WEC) Brazil (EWZ) and Hong Kong (EWH). In addition, many energy funds and indexes have shown positive momentum indicating that growth is again with us.

Value is somewhat better than growth at this time – yet both are good. Our sector momentum ranking, from high to low, is: oil, financial, semiconductor, utility, and precious metals. This sector lineup is not consistent with traditional business cycle sector alignment because sector rotation is unsteady at this time.

Leading countries we're finding are: Germany, U.S., England, and emerging markets. The U.S. dollar is decreasing in our evaluation versus other currencies.

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