Recession Less Likely as Businesses Go on Shopping Spree

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) announced on Monday that the chances of a recession remain low. Remarking on the likelihood of a recession, the National Association for Business Economics said that "only two of 42 forecasters predicted a decline in real GDP over the near term. As a group, the panelists saw a recession as the least likely scenario." The report said that consumer spending is forecast to remain relatively weak, growing at just 2.1% in both 2011 and 2012. Businesses are faring better than consumers and should drive economic growth next year with business spending being the "bright spot" in NABE's economic forecast. The economists forecast "solid if not spectacular growth in spending on business equipment and software in both 2011 (up 10.5 percent) and 2012 (an additional increase of 8 percent)." The consensus among the economists was that economic growth for 2011 would come in at 1.8% and the economy should grow by 2.4% in 2012. Both growth rates were slightly higher than the previously forecast growth rates. NABE Outlook Survey Chair Shawn DuBravac said that “economists responding to the latest NABE Outlook Survey expect moderate economic growth through 2012, with little likelihood of another recession or an outbreak of inflation.” DuBravac went on to say that "there are several bright spots in the outlook. Business spending remains a strong positive and housing starts are expected to continue to rise from the bottom seen in 2010. Corporate profits and stock prices are predicted to strengthen. But the panel remains concerned about debt-related issues in Europe.” Although the National Association for Business Economics expects the American economy to grow slightly faster than previously reported and unemployment levels are expected to fall from 9.1 percent to 8.9 percent in 2012, the growth rate is still expected to be well below the rate needed in order to significantly reduce America's high unemployment rate. NABE said that "monthly job gains are expected to rise steadily over the forecast horizon, from an average of 100,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011 to 130,000 by the end of next year." There are a number of investment options for traders to consider depending on how they view the National Association for Business Economics' report. Stocks like Xerox XRX, Knoll KNL and Canon CAJ could climb higher if the National Association for Business Economics is correct in predicting robust growth in business equipment spending by American businesses. Stocks like Automatic Data Processing ADP, Citrix Systems CTXS and Sapient Corporation SAPE could also move higher over the next year if businesses continue to increase spending on software. If increased business spending leads to a bigger drop in the unemployment rate than currently expected, ETFs like the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund XLY could see upward movement as newly employed consumers start spending again. If the economists' business spending forecasts prove to be overly optimistic, than an ETF like the ProShares UltraShort Technology REW or the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares TYP could see big gains.