Tuesday is Election Day. Political passions and tensions are running high in the U.S. and market participants are still trying to figure out what outcome is best for stocks. Conventional wisdom has been that an upset of President Obama by Republican challenger Mitt Romney coupled with the GOP regaining control of the Senate could spark a risk on rally.
That does not mean a risk on rally cannot happen if the President is reelected. Along those lines, some market observers note stocks really do not care who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. With the
fiscal cliff looming, it may not matter who wins this election unless he (and Congress) can come together to avert that treacherous scenario.
In a perfect world for the bulls, stocks will rally following this election, regardless of outcome and the fiscal cliff will be averted. Should all that happen, these are some of the ETFs investors will want to be involved with.
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index Fund (NYSE: ITA)
Or the PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio (NYSE:
PPA). Or the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:
XAR). These ETFs are the quintessential "avoids" under a fiscal cliff scenario on the expectation that defense spending will be slashed.
Conversely, these funds are viewed as buys assuming Romney wins and the Republicans gain control of the Senate. That might just be what these ETFs are starting to price in. As
Barron's notes, PPA touched its highest levels since June 2008 today. For its part, ITA is up nearly two percent and trading less than $1 away from its 52-week high.
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE: VIG)
Or any of VIG's competitors such as the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSE:
SDY) and the iShares High Dividend Equity Fund (NYSE:
HDVWisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (NYSE: CEW)
Currency ETFs such as the PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish (NYSE:
UUP) and the PowerShares DB Dollar Bearish (NYSE:
UDN) could easily put in some exaggerated moves immediately following the election. However, the impact of U.S. politics on emerging markets currency is could be muted. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
said as muchPowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSE: PCY)SPY) of 0.69,
according to State Street data. Said another way, dollar-denominated emerging markets bonds, of which PCY is comprised, have been less correlated to the benchmark index than the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:
XLP) and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:
XLV) have been.
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