ETF Outlook for Tuesday March 25, 2014 (IHF, GDX, UNG)

ETF Outlook for Tuesday March 25, 2014

iShares Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Providers Index ETF IHF

One side of the aisle deems the subsidies that are handed out with Obamacare in 36 states that have not set up their own exchanges illegal; the Supreme Court will hear the argument today. So far the courts have sided with the legality of the subsidies, but if the Supreme Court changes the ruling it could slow the expansion of health insurance in the states. A sector that will be watching the hearings will be IHF, which is a basket of health care providers with a heavy concentration on the health insurance companies.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF UNG

The House and Senate energy committees are holding hearings today to decide if they should ease the restrictions on the exportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). A move would allow more countries to buy LNG from the U.S. through a simpler process. The situation in the Ukraine and Russia may put pressure on the politicians to ease the restrictions so Europe can begin to lower their reliance on Russia for natural gas. The side against the easing of restrictions believes it will increase the prices for natural gas in the U.S., which would lead to a bump in the price of UNG. The commodity has already had a big rally during the extremely cold winter season.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX

A big loss of 4.7 percent yesterday has the ETF at a new one-month low. The stocks are moving in concert with the price of gold, which has also dipped to the lowest level in a month. The ETF is now down 12 percent in less than two weeks and the short-term uptrend it had been building since December has been destroyed. The next level of support for GDX is the $23 area and it closed out yesterday at $24.33. A bounce either today or at some point this week is likely, however the trend is now clearly down and it appears the 2014 gold rally has ended.