After EgyptAir Flight 804 dove into the Mediterranean Thursday, many sources including the Egyptian government have speculated the disaster was due to terrorism. This would make the flight one of four major passenger plane disasters in the past two years which had significant speculation for, or proven terrorist roots. These flights include Malaysia Flight 17 over Ukraine, Malaysia Flight 370 in the Pacific Ocean, and Russian MetroJet Flight 9268 over the Sinai Peninsula.
The past three major disasters are shown below in red with S&P 500 price movement and Spider Transportation ETF XTN in purple:
Malaysia Flight 17 was shot down by pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine on July 17th 2014:
(insert Malaysia Flight 17 pic.)
The incident could have had an effect on the markets during the initial date of impact, but Transportation stocks shot right back up the next day.
Malaysia Flight 370, disappeared over the Pacific on March 8th 2014 and experienced significant speculation over whether the disaster was terrorist induced or not, but never was proved:
(insert Malaysia Flight 370 pic.)
Disappearance of flight 370 could have caused transportation stocks to dip relative to the S&P 500, but not significantly and not for long.
Metrojet Flight 9268 was a Russian flight taken out by ISIS terrorists over the Sinai Peninsula on October 31st 2015:
(insert MetroJet Flight 9268 pic.)
The S&P 500 was up on the day of the crash and the day after. despite Additionally, the disaster did not have a large effect on U.S. transportation. Perhaps our opponent's (Russian) misfortunes don't scare U.S. investors
Overall, terrorist created flight disasters do not have consistent or significant effects on U.S. transportation stocks or the S&P 500. If the passenger planes were from an American airline, perhaps results would differ.
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