Coming out of the great recession, governments around the world have adopted loose monetary policies to prop up the economies. These include U.S. central bank's QE2 (Quantitative Easing act 2) and Euro Zone's bailout of troubling peripheral countries like Greece. The current natural disasters in Japan and other countries can only add more demand for the stimulus. These policies resulted in commodity hoarding, especially in material hungry emerging economies such as China.
It is critical to have anti-inflation anti-currency devaluation component. In this article, we explore the feasibility of adding commodity exposure to an income producing portfolio. Commodity ETFs are effective tools to cope with the current situations. In a portfolio that is designed to preserve capital for retirement needs. However, because of volatile and somewhat dangerous nature of commodites, one needs to actively manage such a portfolio by adopting tactical asset allocation strategies.
Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities plan is an extension to Retirement Income ETFs: adding extra commodity asset class with PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) and GreenHaven Continuous Commodity (GCC). This plan consists of 37 funds. These funds enable investors to gain exposure to 6 major assets: US Equity, Commodity, Foreign Equity, Emerging Market Equity, REITs, Fixed Income. Compared with Retirement Income ETFs, this plan has two additional ETFs that represent the extra commodity asset class.
The following is the list of the candidate ETFs in the Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities:
| The list of minor asset classes covered by Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities |
|---|
| Commodities Broad Basket: DBC, GCC Diversified Emerging Mkts: EEM, VWO, DEM Emerging Markets Bond: EMB, PCY Foreign Large Value: PID, IDV Global Real Estate: RWX High Yield Bond: HYG Inflation-protected Bond: TIP Intermediate Government: IEI Intermediate-term Bond: CIU, CORP, MBB Large Blend: VIG Large Value: DVY, SDY, VYM, FVD Long Government: IEF, TLT Long-term Bond: LQD, VCLT Mid-cap Value: PEY Miscellaneous Sector: PFF Muni National Long: MUB Muni Short: SHM Real Estate: IYR, ICF, VNQ Short Government: SHY Short-term Bond: CSJ, VCSH World Bond: BWX, WIP |
As of Mar 24, 2011, Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities investment choice is rated as and Retirement Income ETFs investment choice is rated as average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are. It has the following detailed ratings:
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies (SAA and TAA , both provided by MyPlanIQ).
Performance chart (as of Mar 24, 2011)
Performance table (as of Mar 24, 2011)
| Portfolio Name | 1Yr AR | 1Yr Sharpe | 3Yr AR | 3Yr Sharpe | 5Yr AR | 5Yr Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate | 10% | 79% | 8% | 68% | 11% | 83% |
| Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate | 11% | 97% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 20% |
| Retirement Income ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate | 7% | 40% | 8% | 65% | 10% | 62% |
| Retirement Income ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate | 11% | 69% | 3% | 14% | 5% | 17% |
Discussions:
1. Commodity ETFs are volatile. In fact, PowerShare DB Commodity Index ETF (DBC) lost 32% in 2008 while iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GSG) lost a whopping 46% in the same year.
2. Simply adding commodity ETFs to a strategic asset allocation portfolio (buy and hold with regular rebalancing) did not improve the returns in the past five years. This is again due to the big loss incurred in commodtiy ETFs.
3. Adding commodity ETFs as fund candidates in a tactical asset allocation portfolio, however, can improve returns. In the past five years, Retirement Income ETFs with Commodities Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate had extra 1% annualized return over Retirement Income ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate.
In conclusions. commodity ETFs are effective tools to cope with the current situations. In a portfolio that is designed to preserve capital for retirement needs. However, because of volatile and somewhat dangerous nature of commodites, one needs to actively manage such a portfolio by adopting tactical asset allocation strategies.
Disclosure:
MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company or companies mentioned in this article. It does not set up their retirement plans. The performance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained through historical simulation and are hypothetical.
Symbols:DBC,GCC,GSG,EEM,VWO,DEM,EMB,PCY,PID,IDV,RWX,HYG,TIP,WIP,IEI,CIU,CORP,MBB,VIG, DVY,SDY,VYM,FVD,IEF,TLT,LQD,VCLT,PEY,PFF,MUB,SHM,IYR,ICF,VNQ,SHY,CSJ,VCSH,BWX,
Exchange Tickers: (DBC),(GCC),(GSG),(EEM),(VWO),(DEM),(EMB),(PCY),(PID),(IDV),(RWX),(HYG),(TIP),(WIP),(IEI),(CIU),(CORP),(MBB),(VIG),(DVY),(SDY),(VYM),(FVD),(IEF),(TLT),(LQD),(VCLT),(PEY),(PFF),(MUB),(SHM),(IYR),( ICF),(VNQ),(SHY),(CSJ),(VCSH),(BWX)
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