PXBT: What To Expect From Commodities In Q4 And 2025

Economic growth in China is slowing, growth in the eurozone is also slowing, and the US economy is showing signs of slowing growth. This trend is expected to continue in the coming quarters.

As a result of slowing economic growth in these key regions, commodity prices, with the exception of gold, are expected to come under pressure across the remainder of the year and into 2025.

This is the outlook for commodity prices in the coming quarters and how to trade it with a regulated CFD broker, PXBT.

A Weaker Demand Outlook

Growth in the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, are key drivers for commodity demand, yet both regions are set for a slower course over the coming quarter.

China's economic recovery is proving lackluster. Recent data from the world’s largest importer of oil and metal showed that manufacturing activity contracted to a five-month low. Meanwhile, consumer demand remains weak, and the ongoing property crisis shows no signs of easing. Economists at a string of investment banks are lowering their GDP forecast below the government's 5% target.

Without significant stimulus measures from Beijing, the economy is unlikely to experience a rapid turnaround, impacting the demand outlook for many commodities such as oil and industrial metals.

Meanwhile, the demand outlook in the US is less clear. For now, data points to the US economy achieving a soft landing, which, combined with the Federal Reserve starting its interest rate-cutting cycle, should be positive for the demand outlook. The risk is if the data turns and points to a significant slowdown. Under this scenario, the demand outlook could deteriorate quite quickly.

Supply vs Demand

Meanwhile, the supply side differs for the various commodities subsectors. The following will examine each individually.

Oil

The oil demand outlook is impacted principally by the economic picture in China and the US. Despite a more supportive supply side, the weaker demand outlook is expected to dominate. 

Industrial Metals

Industrial metals are more of a mixed bag. On the one hand, copper could rise towards $10k per tonne next year thanks to constrained mine supply and challenges in refining. Meanwhile, copper demand remains strong amid increased investment in energy transition projects.

On the other hand, iron ore prices are set to fall below $80 per tonne due to the weaker demand from the Chinese property sector, while Australia and Brazil are increasing output, leading to a supply glut.

Gold

Gold has been a clear outperformer this year, rising to a new all-time high as supportive factors aligned. Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, started cutting interest rates, boosting demand for non-yielding Gold. Adding support, central bank buying, and safe-haven flows have also lifted the precious metal to a peak of $2589 at the time of writing.

Looking ahead, these factors are expected to remain supportive. Global central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to continue cutting interest rates throughout the remainder of the year and heading into 2025. Central banks will also likely continue buying the safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. As a result, Gold prices could rise to $3000 in the coming year.

Trading Commodities With PXBT

There are many ways to benefit from changes in commodity prices, from buying the physical commodity to trading it through an online brokerage such as PXBT. 

PXBT is a leading, regulated CFD broker that offers a wide range of assets and markets to trade on its MT5 platform, including forex, indices, and commodities such as Oil, Gold, and Silver.

Whether you are new to trading or a seasoned professional, the PXBT platform's intuitive interface, comprehensive charting package, and complete toolbox will help you to navigate the markets and implement your trading strategy.

Furthermore, PXBT offers low fees and ultra-fast execution while remaining committed to delivering the latest brokerage infrastructure and deep expertise for traders worldwide.

Learn more about PXBT

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personal recommendation and/or investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be appropriate for every investor. You should carefully assess whether you understand how these leveraged products operate and whether you can tolerate the high risk of losing your money. PXBT Trading Ltd does not serve clients from Restricted Jurisdictions as listed on its website.