The White House is discussing changes to tax policy that could allow tax rates for the wealthiest Americans to increase, potentially to help fund other tax cuts. According to Axios, some Trump administration officials believe that allowing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to expire for the highest earners could create room for cuts elsewhere, such as eliminating taxes on tips for service workers.
However, this strategy has sparked debate within Republican circles. Many conservatives strongly oppose any tax increases, even if they come with corresponding reductions elsewhere. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that failing to extend the 2017 tax cuts would lead to an “economic calamity.”
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White House Official’s Warning
One anonymous White House official expressed concerns about the potential backlash from voters if tax cuts for the wealthy are renewed at the expense of programs like Medicaid. According to Axios, the official stated, “If we renew tax cuts for the rich paid for by throwing people off Medicaid, we’re gonna get f–king slaughtered.”
Extending tax breaks while making cuts to social programs holds political risks and the potential to impact millions of Americans who rely on those programs. With a growing portion of the Republican base coming from working-class voters, policies that people perceive as benefiting the wealthy at the expense of lower-income Americans could be politically costly.
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The Monetary Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts
The top income tax rate is currently 37% for those who earn above $609,351, or $731,201 for married couples. If the 2017 tax cuts expire, that percentage would increase to 39.6% and the income threshold would be lowered.
According to the Tax Foundation, if the TCJA is extended, federal tax revenue would be decreased by $4.5 trillion from 2025 through 2034. Long-run GDP would be 1.1% higher, offsetting $710 billion, or 16%, of the revenue losses. Long-run GNP would only rise by 0.4%, as some of the benefits of the tax cuts and larger economy go to foreigners in the form of higher interest payments on the debt.
These monetary effects are part of a broader debate that also includes President Donald Trump‘s call for permanently extending the 2017 tax cuts.
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Public Opinion on Tax Policy
Polling data from the Pew Research Center indicates that a majority of Americans support higher taxes on corporations and high-income households. Specifically, 63% of Americans believe that tax rates on large businesses should be raised, and 58% say the same about households earning over $400,000 annually.
There is a clear partisan divide on this issue. While 74% of Democrats support raising taxes on high-income households, only 43% of Republicans agree. However, there is some division within the GOP itself—moderate and liberal Republicans are more open to tax increases than their conservative counterparts.
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The Future of Tax Policy
The debate over tax cuts is far from settled. While some in the White House see increasing taxes on top earners as a way to make tax cuts more politically viable, many Republicans remain opposed. The discussion will likely continue as lawmakers weigh the economic and electoral consequences of their decisions.
With the 2017 tax cuts set to expire this year, how Congress and the administration navigate these policy choices could have significant implications for the economy.
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