Bitcoin Surges Past $82K Despite U.S. Risk-Off Mood — Is a Breakout Brewing?

What an eventful week in the markets. Bitcoin swung $10,000—trading from a weekly low of $74,000 and ending around $84,000 by Friday.

Over the past few weeks, the markets have experienced a strong risk-off narrative—but not just any kind. It's a U.S.-focused risk-off environment, where even safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries aren't seeing any love.

With typically safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar not showing strength during times when they usually would, a narrative has emerged for Bitcoin to potentially step up to the plate.

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And with that, Bitcoin has definitely gotten a hit. I wouldn't call it a home run just yet, but its relative strength—holding above $80K during this period of geopolitical uncertainty, while stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar fall—should tell us something.

6-Month Historical Performance

If you had bought the S&P 500 six months ago, prior to the U.S. election, you'd currently be down roughly 10% on your investment. Bitcoin, on the other hand, would have you up over 20%.

Once again, this highlights Bitcoin's relative strength compared to traditional markets, especially as uncertainty has played a major role.

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Daily Chart

As of writing this on Friday, there are still two trading days left before a new weekly candle forms in the crypto markets—so things could change. But for now, Bitcoin has made a strong move back inside the range after briefly trading below the key swing level.

With this in mind, we now have important key levels to monitor. If Bitcoin can reclaim these levels, we could start to see a significant shift in the market—potentially leading to a move back toward the all-time highs.

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If Bitcoin continues to trade higher heading into the weekend and next week, watching the $88K range will be crucial, as we've seen the market reject from that level twice now.

The next major level to break and reclaim is $92,000, which marks the low end of the previous consolidation.

In my view, if Bitcoin can strongly reclaim the $90,000s, we could see new all-time highs relatively quickly.

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