Analyst Predicts Recession is Coming Despite Financial Crisis Put on 'Hold' — Warns 'Rich Kids Insulated From Their Own Actions'

The US stock market rebounded sharply as investors cheered President Donald Trump's April 9 announcement to put a 90-day pause on tariffs against all countries except China. While many Wall Street experts view this as a positive development, some believe we're still not out of the woods.

‘Classic' Bear Market

Josh Brown, CNBC commentator and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, said during a recent segment that he doesn't see the rebound as a healthy pullback and pointed to some "classic" bear market signs. The analyst called the rebound a "bear market bounce." Brown talked about past market rebounds during recessionary periods to prove his point:

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"I saw all the tables, all the graphs, all the charts. What didn't necessarily accompany that commentary was the context in which we've seen the other nine best days of all time," Brown said. "And I'll spoil it for you—typically, they take place in years like 1933, 2008, and 1931, and they happen when the market is in a 75% drawdown. A 48% drop on October 13th of 2008 was the sixth best day ever. We had a huge 11.6% run, but we were already down 35.9% from the high."

While Brown acknowledged that we are not in a "statistical" bear market, he believes that important sectors with large market caps were in their "own" bear market, and warned affluent investors about the challenges ahead.

"While it was exhilarating and remarkable and a lot of fun, with a lot of backslapping and a lot of rich kids who are really proud of themselves—because they grew up insulated from the consequences of their own actions—the end result today is, ‘Oh wait a minute, maybe we put the financial crisis on hold, but we still get to have a recession,'" he said on CNBC.

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The analyst said that he is not shorting the market and avoids being "too negative" but wants to present an accurate picture of the market.

Treasury Market Swings ‘Maniacal'

During the CNBC segment, Brown called the recent volatility in the Treasury market "maniacal" and said that if the Federal Reserve steps in to stabilize the bond market, it would be a negative sign. Browns specifically mentioned the 45 basis-point swing in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield between April 4 and April 9, which was the biggest since 2022.

"We’ve only seen that seven other times going back to the year 2000 and on every single instance the S&P was down 25% or worse that we’ve seen so again that is a classic feature of when the S&P is down big you get those huge swings in the 10-year," Brown said.

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Buying Opportunity for Long-Term Investors

Despite the volatility, Brown recommended investors buy only if they have a long-term horizon.

“You should not expect that the buys you make today will necessarily be rewarded a week from now it’s just a different environment," said Brown.

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