Option chain shows key data for DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038's stock options at various strike prices and expiration dates. Traders use this information to analyze potential trades and assess market sentiment for DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038.

DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038 (ARCA:DGP) Stock, Option Chain

Specialty ETFs

Commodities

Politics

Markets

ETFs

General

SGOL

UGLD

Gold Set To Sparkle In Q4: ETFs To Consider

Long Ideas

Exclusives

Trading Ideas

Interview

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

GDXJ

GOLD

This Economist Is Bullish On Gold, But Says Be Wary Of Near-Term Pullback

Financial Advisors

News

Topics

Global

Economics

MSFT

The US Economy and the United Nations: Bold Strategies Needed - Tax Reform and Benefits Reform

DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038

Despite the bullishness in the stock market, gold maintained its sheen this year thanks to geopolitical concerns, instability in Europe and United States as well as lofty stock valuations. This is especially true, as the bullion has risen about 9.2% while the S&amp;P 500 Index has gained 13.2% in the year-to-date time frame. &nbsp;
	After the fourth consecutive weekly loss, gold price rebounded to a two-week high toward $1,300 per ounce level as uptick in geopolitical uncertainty raised demand for the precious metal as a safe haven. Tensions between the United States and North Korea flared up again this week after President Donald Trump tweeted that years of talking with North Korea over its nuclear buildup have proved futile and that &quot;only one thing will work.&quot; This sparked fears of World War 3, raising the appeal for the metal as a store of value and hedge against market turmoil. In addition, a Russian report shows that North Korea is preparing to test a missile that could potentially reach the United States (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/278162/etf-strategies-to-benefit-from-north-korea-tensions">ETF Strategies to Benefit from North Korea Tensions</a>).
	Further, a soft dollar and dovish Fed minutes added to the strength. Though the December rate hike expectation remains intact, the minutes revealed low inflation concerns pushing the greenback down. The dollar index, which measures the greenback&#39;s value against a basket of six major currencies, touched its <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/dollar-slips-after-fed-minutes-eyes-on-u-s-inflation-data-idUKKBN1CH06W">lowest level since Sep 26</a>. A rise in euro is putting further pressure on the greenback. A weak dollar is a huge boon to gold prices, as it makes gold cheap for holders of other currencies.
	Moreover, higher demand in India, the world&#39;s second-biggest consumer of gold, is lending support to the price of the yellow metal. Notably, demand in India tends to rise in the final quarter due to the wedding and festive season (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/274380/what-lies-ahead-for-gold-etfs">What Lies Ahead for Gold ETFs?</a>).&nbsp; &nbsp;
	How to Play?
	Given the optimism and intense buying pressure on gold, investors have a long list of options in the ETF world to tap the metal&#39;s rally.
	Gold ETFs
	While there are many products that are directly linked to the spot gold price or futures, we have highlighted the three most-popular ETFs. These have gained more than 12% in the year-to-date time frame and carry a favorable Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook.
	SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD: This is the largest and most popular ETF in the gold space with AUM of $35.3 billion and average daily volume of around 7.8 million shares. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, and kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. Expense ratio comes in at 0.40%.
	iShares Gold Trust IAU: This ETF offers exposure to the day-to-day movement of the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical gold under the custody of JP Morgan Chase Bank in London. It has AUM of $9.4 billion and trades in solid volume of 8.8 million shares a day on average. The ETF charges 25 bps in annual fees. &nbsp;
	ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares SGOL: This product also tracks the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical bullion under the custody of JPMorgan Chase Bank. It has amassed more than $1.0 billion in its asset base and trades in lower volume of 32,000 shares per day. The product has an expense ratio of 0.39% (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/274380/what-lies-ahead-for-gold-etfs">What Lies Ahead for Gold ETFs?</a>).
	Leveraged Gold ETFs
	Investors who are bullish on gold may consider a near-term long on the precious metal with the following ETFs depending on their risk appetite.
	ProShares Ultra Gold ETF UGL: This fund seeks to deliver twice (2x or 200%) the return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars. It charges 95 bps in fees a year and has amassed $90.6 million in its asset base. Volume is light at about 41,000 shares per day. The ETF has gained 21.6% so far this year.
	DB Gold Double Long ETN DGP: This ETN seeks to deliver twice the return of the daily performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return, charging 75 bps in fees per year. It has accumulated $118.4 million in its asset base so far and trades in an average daily volume of 34,000 shares. The ETN is up 24.6% this year (see: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/funds/etfs/etf-categories/Leveraged-Commodity-ETFs-46">all the Leveraged Commodity ETFs here</a>).
	VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN UGLD: This product provides three times (3x or 300%) exposure to the daily performance of the S&amp;P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return plus returns from U.S. T-bills net of fees and expenses. The ETN has been able to manage an asset base of $108 million while charging a higher fee of 1.35% annually. However, the note trades in a solid volume of about 669,000 shares a day on average and has surged 32.3% in the year-to-date time frame.
	Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox?
	Zacks&#39; free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. <a href="https://www.zacks.com/registration/newsletter/?type=FND&amp;ADID=Zcom_commentary_fundnewsletter_moneysense_ECD_ETF">Get it free &gt;&gt;</a>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. <a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=RPT_7BST_LP194&amp;ADID=BENZ_CONTENT_ZER_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574" target="_blank">Click to get this free report</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=SGOL&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">ETFS-GOLD TRUST (ETF:SGOL): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=GLD&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">GOLD (LONDON P (ETF:GLD): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=IAU&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">ISHARS-GOLD TR (ETF:IAU): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=UGL&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">PRO-ULT GOLD (ETF:UGL): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=UGLD&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">VEL-3X LNG GOLD (ETF:UGLD): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=DGP&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">DB GD 2XL (ETF:DGP): ETF Research Reports</a> 
	&nbsp; 
	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/278574/gold-set-to-sparkle-in-q4-etfs-to-consider?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-278574">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Brian Dolan, chief market strategist at DriveWealth, was a guest in Benzinga&rsquo;s PreMarket Prep last week. Among several other issues, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury Yields, the expert went into gold.
Talking about commodities and the wider market, the investor explained that oil was set to decline. &ldquo;Oil being sold fits in perfectly with perfectly with the whole risk-off environment. It&rsquo;s also indicative of an overall lower growth and demand outlook,&rdquo; and that could lead to the whole commodity space coming under pressure. This, of course, would not be supportive for U.S. equities or the energy sector.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8115659/reactions-to-the-feds-decision-not-to-increase-rates-lik">Reactions To The Fed&#39;s Decision Not To Increase Rates: Like A Child Trying To Ride A Bike?</a></bzrelatedlink>
In this environment, many investors would expect gold to surge &mdash; as it has been. When asked about the issue, Dolan said &ldquo;it seems likely&rdquo; that this run-up will continue, &ldquo;until, and only if the unwind and the risk positioning in the broader the broader stock markets and commodities spirals out of control [...]At that point, gold positions will tend to get liquidated alongside those other markets.&rdquo; So, investors that are long gold and/or gold producers should keep an eye on that, he explicated.
&ldquo;While the unwind remains relatively orderly and we are not having multiple percentage drops in successive days, gold is likely to continue to stay elevated,&rdquo; he continued, adding that &ldquo;gold is an extremely illiquid market, and clearly that&rsquo;s also another crowded trade. So, the long positioning there also raises the risk of a more severe unwind. So, if we are moving into the Summer months, and, unfortunately liquidity tends to dry up around most markets, and that kind of exacerbates moves and increased volatility.&rdquo;
So, again, Dolan warned people long gold and gold producers to keep their eyes open. &ldquo;On the short run, I can see further upside [...] But just be wary of the downside unwind,&rdquo; he concluded.
Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

The Economic Issues and Some Defensive Strategies and Ideas



	According to the WESP "World Economic Situation and Prospects Report" from the United Nations, the US and global economy is  in a rut and having extreme difficulty moving forward.  The report recommends  that governments must be innovative and think of new strategies to cooperate with business and the workers to stimulate the economy.

	As per the United Nations Report, the US economy still remains weak and without direction. The report states that, 
	 
<blockquote>
	"In the United States, despite recent improvements, the unemployment rate remains well above pre-crisis levels, at over 8 per cent. In the euro area, it increased to a historic high of 10.9 per cent in March 2012.   It reached alarming heights in the debt-ridden euro area countries: in Spain it had jumped to 24.1 per cent in March 2012 (up 8.6 in 2007), 21.7 per cent in Greece (up from 8), 13.5 in Portugal (up from 8.5), and 14.5 per cent in Ireland (up from 5).   In developing countries, in contrast, employment rebounded more strongly."</blockquote>

	 

	USA Economic Woes - The Highlights
<ol><li>
		In a May 9th ABC news report, the number of highly educated professionals or PhDs on public aid or welfare has tripled in recent months.   </li>
	<li>
		In total, 44 million people were on food stamps in the US on a monthly basis in 2011, compared with 17 million in 2000, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  - Source ABC News</li>
	<li>
		Moreover, Business Week reported on May 31st that The number of Americans on Social Security disability has jumped 23 percent since 2007.</li>
	<li>
		Presently, the level of employment is about five million jobs lower than where it was in 2008, when the economy slipped  into recession.</li>
	<li>
		A record 5.4 million workers with their dependents have signed up to collect federal disability checks since President Obama took office.</li>
	<li>
		CNN now reports this May that 12.7 million are unemployed in the United States, not including the 4 million who have may have given up looking for work.</li>
	<li>
		Economists forecasts and estimates reveal that about  another 4 million workers have simply stopped looking for work, and so do not show up in the Dept. of Labor  tally used for the unemployment rate.</li>
	<li>
		To make things worse in 2012, Wall Street Stocks ended down a whopping  2 percent, extending May's rout.</li>
	<li>
		The DJI Dow Jones industrial average also dipped into negative territory for the 2012 which is the biggest insult to injury to a potential recovery and to workers' 401K Plans. </li>
</ol>


	The United Nations discloses that there are four major weaknesses which continue to conspire against economic recovery:
<ol><li>Deleveraging by banks, firms and households, which continues to restrain normal credit flows and consumer and investment demand;</li>
<li>Unemployment remains high, a condition that is both cause and effect in preventing economic recovery;</li>
<li>Fiscal austerity responses to rising public debts deter economic growth and make a return to debt sustainability all the more difficult; and</li>
<li>Bank exposures to sovereign debt perpetuate fragility in the financial sector, which in turn spurs continued deleveraging.</li></ol>

<blockquote>
	“Worldwide, more than 400 million new jobs will be needed over the next decade. That means that policy-makers must get serious, now, about generating decent employment,” said Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the high-level thematic debate on The State of the World Economy and Finance and its Impact on Development, held on 17 May. “It is time to recognize that human capital and natural capital are every bit as important as financial capital,”</blockquote>

	In conclusion, there needs to be new, bold, and efficient ways to stimulate hiring, employment and  consumer spending.  Governments should begin to look at ways to treat the working professional and the employers as the customer and determine what types of simple benefits and tax reform could be imparted upon the hardest working and  the most  steadfast contributors. 

	There needs to be greater incentives to: compete, create, invest, and participate.  If the cash, food, and health benefits of "not working" outweigh the rewards of:  hard work, risk and job stress - then the entire system is totally broken. 

	In sum, because the markets and investment yields are not advancing in recent years, the pensions and government obligations grow larger while the available money gets smaller. 

	In the end, the state, federal and city governments are not using sustainable business practices or budgeting, and if costs are not constrained, then debts will become unmanageable and  insurmountable.

	Market Tips: Some Stock Sectors that were resilient this week were:  Verizon (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/vz">VZ</a>), WalMart  (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/wmt">WMT</a>, AT&amp;T  (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/t">T</a>,  Sara Lee (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/sle">SLE</a>), AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/abc">ABC</a>, Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/jnj">JNJ</a>, Pfizer (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/pfe">PFE</a>), Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/bmy">BMY</a>), Wellpoint (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/wlp">WLP</a>), or you can find ETFs that are defensive in nature that own gold, silver, or other commodities such as Gold (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/dgp">DGP</a>) or Silver (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/slv">SLV</a>)

	Other Typical Defensive Stocks may include:  Microsoft (NASDAQ: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/mfst">MFST</a>), Mastercard (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/ma">MA</a>), Monsanto (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/mon">MON</a>), Walgreens (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/wag">WAG</a>), Merck (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/mrk">MRK</a>), VISA (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/v">V</a>), Chevron (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/cvx">CVX</a>), Exxon (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/xom">XOM</a>),and Lowe's (NYSE: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/stock/low">LOW</a>)

	Dr. George Mentz is a world recognized wealth management commentator and professor who has authored several revolutionary books.  Prof.  Mentz, an international attorney,  has been a keynote speaker  globally in Asia, Arabia, USA, Mexico, Switzerland, and in the West Indies. Mentz  can be contacted at <a href="http://www.gmentz.com">www.gmentz.com</a>

	References &amp; Citations: <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/feature/2012/06/index.html#3974">http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/feature/2012/06/index.html#3974</a>

	<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/growing-number-americans-phds-receiving-food-stamps-aid/story?id=16310858">http://abcnews.go.com/Business/growing-number-americans-phds-receiving-food-stamps-aid/story?id=16310858</a>

	<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-31/federal-disability-insurance-nears-collapse">http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-31/federal-disability-insurance-nears-collapse</a>

	<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-growth-falters-may-123604088.html">http://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-growth-falters-may-123604088.html</a>

	<a href="http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/">http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/</a>

	<a href="http://news.investors.com/article/608418/201204200802/ssdi-disability-rolls-skyrocket-under-obama.htm?p=full">http://news.investors.com/article/608418/201204200802/ssdi-disability-rolls-skyrocket-under-obama.htm?p=full</a>

	<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/01/news/economy/europe-unemployment-jobs/index.htm">http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/01/news/economy/europe-unemployment-jobs/index.htm</a>

	<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577424492946765620.html">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577424492946765620.html</a>

	No tax or investment advice is implied herein. Before making any important investment, tax, or legal decision, please speak to a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.

Normally when stocks are getting crushed, as they are today, gold is a safe haven. 

Right now, however, gold is plunging, down another<a href="http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&amp;p=m5"> $50 an ounce today,</a> hovering just above $1,800 an ounce.

This begs the question - why?

There are two schools of thought on this. One is that investors are beginning to see that the problems around the world are not as bad as they have been made out to be, and risky assets should be seeing inflows soon. Most, if not a vast majority, are not in this school, as Europe did not just suddenly solve its problems. Just look at <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/09/1912336/rest-in-peace-greece">Greece.</a>

It is barely hanging on by a thread, but most likely will default by the end of the year, if not sooner. The yield on Greek 1 year debt is over 100%, and there is little chance that this situation can sustain itself for more than a few weeks. Prime Minister George Papandreou claims the country will not default, but given its economic state, very few believe him.

So if this is the case, and Europe is still a financial disaster, then why is gold plunging?

The other school of thought is a recession is around the corner, or perhaps something even worse. Depression, or the big "d" word is being thrown around.

All the economic signs are there for gold to go higher, perhaps as high as $2,000 an ounce by the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/commodities/11/09/1896880/why-gold-is-going-to-2-000-an-ounce-by-the-end-of-september">end of the month</a> as some have claimed. 

However, if the situation in Europe is worse then many are letting on, including members of the European Central Bank, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, there may a situation like we had in 2008. Every asset, including precious metals, and other commodities, were sold at fire-sale prices, as investors tried to get whatever they could for them. Oil was sold down to $30/per barrel, and the S&amp;P fell as low as 666. If you look at <a href="http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&amp;p=w1">this chart,</a> gold was also a victim of the asset sales. Gold peaked around $1000 an ounce early in 2008, then along with every other asset class, fell 20% from these highs.

If and when Greece topples over and defaults, it is going to be catastrophic. How catastrophic it will be has not been determined yet. Some have said it could be as bad as Lehman Bros., while others think it may be like Bear Stearns. If this happens, no asset class is safe, and gold could be subject to sharp sell off, as hedge funds, and other institutional investors will sell anything to lock in a profit.

Right now, there is a rumor going around that China may come in and save Italy. It is no secret that China and Europe are joined at the hip, with a significant amount of Chinese goods being shipped to Europe. If Europe collapses, China goes down with it, as does gold. Everything is inter-connected now.

Traders should keep an eye on the spot price of gold, and forget all of the surrounding noise. 

Today's $50 an ounce sell off might be just simple profit taking, but given the history of the metal and what we saw just three short years ago, it might be signaling something far worse.

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that gold will resume buying after a technical correction might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>Add to SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) if you believe gold is just in a small correction. </li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that gold is selling off for far more ominous reasons may consider alternate positions: 

<ul><li>If we begin to see gold really sell off, that could be signaling everyone is moving to cash, for fear of another recession, or perhaps even a depression. In this case, short gold, shorting the above mentioned securities. </li></ul>

<ul><li>Traders can also short the gold miners, such as Barrick (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/abx#NYSE">ABX</a>), Goldcorp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gg#NYSE">GG</a>) and others. </li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Bonds

Short Ideas

Forex

Why Is Gold So Weak Today?

We discussed the reasons <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/08/1848787/why-gold-is-going-to-2-000-an-ounce-by-the-end-of-august">last month</a> why gold would go to $2,000 an ounce by the end of August. 

That did not happen, and fell well short of that level, closing at roughly $1,830 an ounce. Still, gold had a spectacular month, gaining 12% during August, thanks in part to worries over the S&amp;P downgrade of U.S. debt, Eurozone problems, and concerns over slowing growth around the world.

None of those problems have gone away, they have just been pushed out a few weeks, as there is talk that the Federal Reserve is going to do a third round of quantitative easing to help boost employment (aka boost the S&amp;P 500). Fortunately or unfortunately depending upon your perspective, it looks as if a third round of quantitative easing will not been seen by the equities market as favorable, and will only boost commodities, namely precious metals.

During the month of August, we saw gold run up to over $1,900 an ounce, then proceed to plunge to around $1,730 an ounce, as all the hot money and those who rushed in during the month to get burned. That does not mean the trend is over, as evidenced by this <a href="http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&amp;p=h1">chart.</a> The uptrend is still intact, despite that bit of volatility we saw towards the latter part of the month.

In recent days, gold has been consolidating for a larger move: either higher or lower. Considering the fact that none of those problems were resolved (S&amp;P did downgrade U.S. debt, so I guess this problem was solved, albeit negatively) and we have more concerns coming in September, the logical move is higher. We are also starting to move into the holiday buying season, which tends to push prices higher. In India, gold is considered a big gift, and gold prices generally rise as we get towards the end of the year. 

There is still a crisis of confidence around the world, although it has calmed down somewhat. There is also concern that as the third quarter comes to a close, we will see earnings reports for a lot of companies be revised down, and money has to go somewhere. 

We saw what happened during August when you get a crisis of confidence, money all piles into one place: precious metals, particularly, gold. Gold jumped 12% during the month. If the Fed does decide to enact "QE3" in September, we could see $2,000 an ounce by the meeting, or perhaps slightly after. The U.S. dollar will continue to nosedive, and precious metals will be the beneficiaries.

Greece is still a mess, and whether the country gets bailed out or not changes by the day. That does not inspire confidence. In fact, it saps it. Italy is a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/08/1830248/arrivederci-roma">disaster of epic proportions,</a> and there is a vote in September to increase the European Financial Stability Fund. Getting the fund increased is going to be incredibly hard to do, which should sap confidence even more. In short, Europe is very ugly, and does not look any better than it did just a few short weeks ago.

When you have a crisis of confidence, everyone heads for the exit. The only door that is open? Gold.

$2,000 an ounce is closer than you think. Wake me up when September ends.

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that September will be even more volatile than August might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>Buying the gold miners has not proved as profitable as buying gold ETFs. Traders may want to consider SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>), which tracks the price of gold, or PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>). </li></ul>

<ul><li>Traders may also move into silver, which should move higher as gold does. Consider iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) or ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>). </li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe investor confidence will come back sooner rather than later may consider alternate positions: 

<ul><li> If confidence comes back from some outside force, equities could soar. Baidu (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bidu#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), Apple (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) etc. all could soar from these levels. </li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

AAPL

BIDU

Why Gold Is Going To $2,000 An Ounce By The End Of September

When Goldman Sachs <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/08/1838031/government-sachs-says-to-expect-qe3">called for QE3</a> to be announced, many expected it would be hinted at, or perhaps even announced at Jackson Hole. 

Obviously that was not the case, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke not announcing any plans. Bernanke <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/general/movers-shakers/11/08/1886030/highlights-from-bernankes-speech">did leave the door open</a> at Jackson Hole, but nothing concrete. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans basically came out <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/11/08/1890663/is-qe3-right-around-the-corner">this morning</a> and said he wants QE3 to happen. 

Back in July, Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius said, "We have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth further and now expect real GDP to grow just 2%-2½% through the end of 2012. Our forecast for annual average GDP growth has fallen to 1.7% in 2011 (from 1.8%) and to 2.1% in 2012 (from 3.0%). Since this pace is slightly below the US economy's potential, we now expect the unemployment rate to be at 9¼% by the end of 2012, slightly above the current level."

Hatzius went on to say, "Even our new forecast is subject to meaningful downside risk. We now see a one-in-three risk of renewed recession, mostly concentrated in the next 6-9 months. There are three specific issues that concern us. First, a worsening of the European financial crisis, and a failure of European policymakers to respond adequately, could lead to a further tightening of financial conditions and credit availability, which would worsen the economic outlook globally. Second, our forecast assumes that the payroll tax cut—currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2011—is extended for another year, but if that failed to happen the fiscal drag in early 2012 would increase significantly. Third, increases in the US unemployment rate have historically had a tendency to feed on themselves, and this could happen again."

With the Federal Reserve expanding its September meeting to two days from one, the markets seem to have taken that as a sign that another round of quantitative easing is under heavy consideration, especially at the top levels of the Fed.

Some have said that "QE3" could be a second version of <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/08/1845148/its-a-bird-its-a-plane-its-ben-bernanke">Operation Twist,</a> or perhaps include other securities, as Goldman suggests. Thanks to <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-presents-three-radical-measures-fed-may-engages-turbocharge-imminent-qe3">ZeroHedge,</a> we have Goldman's report from this morning about what the Fed needs to see to enact QE3. It's not just a drop in the S&amp;P 500, although many have now deemed the stock market as the Fed's third mandate.

"There are three main ways in which the Fed could be more radical: (1) an extension of the QE program into markets other than Treasuries and agency MBS, e.g., private sector securities, (2) a much bigger QE program, up to the extreme version of a promise to buy as many securities as needed to hit a specific yield target (i.e. a "rate cap" further out on the yield curve as then-Governor Bernanke suggested back in 2002), and (3) an explicit or implicit change in the Fed's policy targets," wrote Goldman in its note this morning.

After Evans made those comments this morning and Goldman released its note, you saw gold and silver shoot up. Inflation is one negative side affect of additional quantitative easing, and gold could soar to numbers never before seen if the Fed enacts a third round of QE.

In the note, Goldman has a self-asked and answered question and answer session, with regard to what could bring about QE3. The most important piece of information is that the Federal Reserve could buy alternative securities, not just U.S. Treasuries this time. In the first round of quantitative easing, the Fed bought mortgage-backed securities as well, but this time, the range could be expanded even further. 

From the note:

Q: What assets would they buy?

A: Probably mostly longer-duration Treasuries. To be sure, the recent widening in agency MBS spreads has somewhat raised the probability that Fed officials might go back into that market, and a further widening could raise it further. It is also possible that MBS would be incorporated into a possible "twist" via sales of high-coupon securities (which have relatively short duration because of a higher probability of refinancing/prepayments) and purchases of low-coupon securities (which have relatively long duration). However, we think the hurdle against duration extension in the MBS market is relatively high because Fed officials remain determined to return to an all-Treasury balance sheet in the longer term. An increase in the stock of low-coupon securities that may not roll off the balance sheet for up to 30 years would make this process even more challenging.

Q: Does the Fed have more extreme options up its sleeve?

A: Yes, but the hurdles are very high, and a more radical approach is unlikely unless the economy and/or the financial markets perform substantially worse than we are forecasting. There are three main ways in which the Fed could be more radical: (1) an extension of the QE program into markets other than Treasuries and agency MBS, e.g., private sector securities, (2) a much bigger QE program, up to the extreme version of a promise to buy as many securities as needed to hit a specific yield target (i.e. a "rate cap" further out on the yield curve as then-Governor Bernanke suggested back in 2002), and (3) an explicit or implicit change in the Fed's policy targets.

If the Fed were to buy alternative securities such as corporate bonds, or ETFs, as Goldman suggests it potentially could, there is no telling how big or how long this program could be. The major caveat to all of this is that it is not likely to be enacted unless the situation becomes incredibly dire. Japan has already enacted this, by buying real estate investment trusts (REITs) and ETFs.

Jan Hatzius and the rest of his team at Goldman are essentially demanding that QE3 be enacted, and with comments from Evans this morning, it looks as if the Fed is listening.

Whatever Goldman wants, Goldman usually gets. There's a reason they are known as <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/11/08/1838031/government-sachs-says-to-expect-qe3">"Government Sachs."</a>

ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that QE3 will come, and Goldman gets what it wants might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>Go long precious metals. Gold jumped $40 an ounce on the comments this morning from Evans, and there is no reason to think it will change should a program be enacted. Consider ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>), ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>). </li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that QE3 is coming may also want to consider currency trades: 

<ul><li>This is ultimately bearish for the health of the U.S. dollar. Traders can short PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>) or go long PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/udn#NYSE">UDN</a>) if they think the U.S. dollar will go down. </li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Movers & Shakers

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Goldman Wants QE3, Will They Get It?

The following exchange traded funds reached new 52-week highs in Wednesday's trading session, and the share price of each is more than 20% higher than at the beginning of the year.

FactorShares 2X: TBond Bull/S&amp;P500 Bear (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fsa#NYSE">FSA</a>) is up more than 67% year to date. The underlying index is a spread index reflecting the difference in daily return between the U.S. equity and interest rate market segments by tracking a long position in the front month E-mini S&amp;P 500 Stock Price index futures and a short position in the front month U.S. Treasury bond futures. 

ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ugl#NYSE">UGL</a>) is up nearly 54% year to date. The investment seeks to provide daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. It invests principally in combinations of swap agreements, futures contracts, forward contracts, and option contracts.

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) is up more than 52% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks to replicate twice the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ubt#NYSE">UBT</a>) is up more than 39% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index. The fund invests in U.S. Treasury securities and derivatives.

iPath Short Enhanced MSCI Emerging Markets ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emsa#NYSE">EMSA</a>) is up more than 34% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks to replicate the leveraged return on the inverse performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index.

iPath Short Enhanced MSCI EAFE ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mfsa#NYSE">MFSA</a>) is up nearly 27% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks to replicate the leveraged return on the inverse performance of the MSCI EAFE Net Total Return index, which is designed to offer a representation of equity market performance of developed markets in Europe, Australasia and the Far East.

Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edv#NYSE">EDV</a>) is up about 26% year to date. The fund invests at least 80% of assets in U.S. Treasury securities held in the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury STRIPS 2030 Year Equal Par Bond Index. The fund maintains a dollar-weighted average maturity consistent with that of the index, which generally ranges between 20 and 30 years. 

iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) is up nearly 26% since the beginning of the year. The trust receives gold deposited with it in exchange for the creation of baskets of iShares, sells gold as necessary to cover the trust's liabilities, and delivers gold in exchange for baskets of iShares surrendered to it for redemption.

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sgol#NYSE">SGOL</a>) is up almost 26% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks to replicate the performance of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds physical gold bullion and offers investors a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in gold with minimal credit risk.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) is up almost 26% year to date. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust is only sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses or as otherwise required by law or regulation.

PowerShares DB Precious Metals (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbp#NYSE">DBP</a>) is up more than 25% year to date. The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Precious Metals Excess Return, a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on two of the most important precious metals: gold and silver.

RBS Gold Trendpilot ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbar#NYSE">TBAR</a>) is up more than 25% year to date. The investment seeks to replicate the RBS Gold Trendpilot index (USD). The index utilizes a systematic trend-following strategy to provide exposure to either the price of gold bullion or the yield on a hypothetical notional investment in 3-month U.S. Treasury bills.

PowerShares DB Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgl#NYSE">DGL</a>) is up more than 25% since the beginning of the year. The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return, which is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold.

PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ltpz#NYSE">LTPZ</a>) is almost 25% year to date. The fund invests at least 80% of assets in securities of the BofA Merrill Lynch 15+ Year U.S. Inflation-Linked Treasury Index. The index is an unmanaged index comprised of TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) with a maturity of at least 15 years.

EMSA

LTPZ

MFSA

TBAR

Fourteen ETFs Hitting 52-Week Highs

Market confidence seems to be recovering following a new deal on Greece. On Thursday, the Eurozone leaders agreed on the form of the second Greek bailout and markets have responded by eating into the value of safe havens. At around 5:40 am GMT, the U.S. dollar rose 0.42% against the Swiss franc to trade around 0.8184, while the euro added 0.2% to its value against the franc to stand around 1.1777. The Swiss franc has probably been the main beneficiary, among currencies at least, of the financial crisis that started in 2008 in the U.S. and then quickly spread to the whole world. Precious metals, other popular safe havens, were also in retreat of Friday. At the moment, gold fell back below the $1,600 mark, sliding 0.18% to stand around $1,588.25. Silver is also trading below an important $40 barrier, losing 0.93% to stand around $39.06.

It seems as if the Europeans have managed to find a long-term solution to Greece's problems, which has calmed the markets. On Thursday, the Eurozone leaders agreed on <a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/market-insights/2011/07/22/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter">a range of new measures</a> aimed at restoring financial stability in the debt-ridden country. The size of the new bailout was set to €109 billion. The Germans have managed to persuade other countries that it is crucial for the private sector to bear some of the costs of the crisis. It is estimated that the “voluntary participation” of the private sector to the bailout will amount to around €37 billion. In order to restore financial stability in Greece, debt maturity was raised from 7.5 years to a minimum 15 years and a maximum of 30 years. At the same time, Greece will be given a grace period of 10 years.

For a long time, the Europeans were trying to prevent the Greek crisis from spreading to other countries. In essence, they have failed miserably in this quest, since the crisis has spread to other peripheral economies. At this point, it was important to minimize the spillover effects of the Greek crisis on other debt-ridden countries on the Eurozone periphery. In order to achieve that, the Europeans had to get Greece out of the headlines. In other words, the second bailout has to be the real thing. The Eurozone cannot afford Greece to be forced into the corner again in a few months time. A decisive action was needed and the Europeans have stepped in when it mattered, or so it seems. 10 year grace period, longer debt maturity and lower interest rates should give enough time to Greece to stabilize its finances and shelter the troubled country from the attacks of bond market speculators.

Markets have responded positively to the news as both the euro and the European bank stocks rose following the news. The ultimate question is how long will the euphoria last. After all, the Europeans might try to avoid the word but this is a type of default. The Europeans might speak about voluntary participation of the private sector, but there is nothing voluntary about accepting <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14245250">a 20% haircut</a>, which is a part of two options the Greek bond holders have at their disposal. The rating agencies have already warned the Europeans they will view any “voluntary” participation of the private sector in the second bailout as a default. It remains to be seen if Moody's, Fitch and S&amp;P will start targeting Italy and Spain after one Eurozone country was allowed to declare default.

There is a lot of risk in the new Greece bailout plan. Above all, it sends a message that the Eurozone countries can default. The Europeans were, of course, very quick to point out that Greece was a onetime thing. However, as <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/21/greece-defaults/">Felix Salmon of Reuters</a> pointed out, the precedent deals never happen only once. It remains to be seen if the haircut in Greece will scare investors away from holding bonds of other Eurozone countries like Portugal, Ireland, Spain or Italy. If this scenario becomes reality, Greece might not be the only Eurozone country allowed to default on parts of its debt.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, tax increases for the rich remain the main stumbling block between the two sides. The Democrats have accepted deep spending cuts asked by the Republicans, which control the House of Representatives, in order to bring down the massive U.S. budget deficit. However, the Republicans seem reluctant to agree on raising taxes for the rich. As the combination of tax increases and spending cuts is the only option acceptable to the White House, the shutdown of the U.S. government becomes a more likely scenario with each day passing.

In spite of recent setbacks for safe havens like the Swiss franc and precious metals, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the global economy. The shutdown of the U.S. government, or credit rating cuts in the Eurozone periphery, could cause massive problems for the world economy, ultimately resulting in double dip recessions across the globe. It the global economy turns the wrong corner, the value of the franc, gold and silver will be rising to new heights very soon.

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that the market confidence in the Eurozone will be short-lived, which should provide a lot of tailwind for safe-heavens, might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxf#NYSE">FXF</a>) is a long play on the Swiss franc. FXF should rise if the franc appreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ELEMENTS MLCX Precious Metals ETN (NYSE: PMY) is a long play on precious metals. PMY should rise if the prices of precious metals increase.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) is a double long play on gold. DGP should rise if the price of gold increases.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that the Eurozone has turned the corner and the U.S. is about to do the same in the next few days, which would restore market confidence and persuade a number of investors to leave safe havens, may consider an alternate positions: 

<ul><li>ETFS Short Swiss Franc Long US Dollar ETC (Sterling) ETF (SCHP) is a short play on the Swiss franc. SCHP should rise if the franc depreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) is a short play on gold. DGZ should rise if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>) is another short play on gold. However, GLL should rise more than DGZ if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Currency ETFs

Market Confidence Recovers following New Greece Deal, but for How Long?

FRANKFURT - Buy as much gold on any pullbacks as the made-for-TV miniseries drags on and on.

The theatrics in the Senate, the House, and the Oval Office, wouldn't cut it on a high school stage, but when you got enough corporate sponsors it gets play on every idiot box around the world.

It's The Debt Ceiling, starring "<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/dr-no-debt-rescue-060200384.html">Dr No</a>," Mitch "Earmarks" McConnell, Harry "I'm-Not-Gay" Reid, The Big O, the insane tea baggers, and a supporting cast of hundreds of others who need to emote before the cameras.

The climax will be when the uglies figuratively throw grandma under the bus and steal her social security.

And there's sure to be great applause when one of the ugly actors helps grandma up, but the camera will miss it when the ugly actor kicks her back down again.

The little voice in my head is screaming at me, "Ramon, pedal your bike to that dealer near <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeil">Zeil</a> and get a few coins for your pocket!" Maybe you've got more cash and can back up your gas-guzzling truck. I probably would if I could.

Even Mr. Gold, Jim Sinclair, says the new magnet to watch is <a href="http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/07/18/1764-is-the-magnet-to-watch/">$1,764</a>.

If you somehow still trust paper you can pick up SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>). You can also look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>).

For leverage, there is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ugl#NYSE">UGL</a>). 

If you think gold has topped out, that The Debt Ceiling isn't half bad. To make serious coin on gold's decline try the PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>) or the ProShares UltraShort Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>).

As far as Eric Cantor betting on a U.S. default: if he were my older brother I'd whack him upside his head with a two-by-four.

As Gerald Calente says, "<a href="http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2010/07/gerald-celente-politics-is-show.html">Politics is show business for ugly people</a>." Sadly, he's right.

Maybe I better jump on my bike.

If you have any new tips for me or want to send me gold, contact me at ramon.lewis.benzinga@gmail.com.

Sector ETFs

Buy Gold Dips Because U.S. Politicians Are Ugly Actors

iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>) led the gainers among the ETFs on Friday. EPU gained 6.53%, and it closed at $44.69. 

ProShares Ultra Silver (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/etf#">ETF</a>) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>) broke its five-day losing streak today. ProShares Ultra Silver (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/etf#">ETF</a>) (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#">AGQ</a>) jumped 4.03%, and closed at $186.56.

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shares(<a class="ticker" href="/stock/etf#">ETF</a>) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edc#NYSE">EDC</a>) gained 3.57% today, and it closed at $39.68. Banco Itau Holding Financeira S.A. (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/adr#">ADR</a>) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/itub#NYSE">ITUB</a>) is a component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and it added 2.70%.

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) traded higher today, along with gold. DGP jumped 3.04%, and it closed at $46.04. It had a volume of 1.26M traded shares, and its average volume is 788K shares.

Emerging Market ETFs

$ADR

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shares

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Telecommunications & Infrastructure Fund

ITUB

Benzinga's Top ETF Gainers, May 6th (EPU, AGQ, EDC, DGP)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday April 28, 2011.

Oil earnings plays: iShares Dow Jones US Oil &amp; Gas Exploration Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ieo#NYSE">IEO</a>) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xle#NYSE">XLE</a>).

The ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>) was a stellar Wednesday performer as was the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>).

With the Dow surging, give the PowerShares Dynamic Industrials ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/prn#NYSE">PRN</a>) a look.

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares UltraShort Brazil (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bzq#NYSE">BZQ</a>), iShares MSCI Peru All Capped Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>) and the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>).

Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares Russian Ruble Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xru#NYSE">XRU</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Pre-Market Outlook

iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund

PowerShares Dynamic Industrials Sector Portfolio

ETFs To Watch April 28, 2011 (DGP, IEO, PRN, IDX)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Friday November 19, 2010.
See if gold's rebound is for real with the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>).
Another metals play for the day: PowerShares DB Base Metals ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbb#NYSE">DBB</a>).
Leveraged sector plays for the day: Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ery#NYSE">ERY</a>), ProShares Ultra Basic Materials (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uym#NYSE">UYM</a>) and Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/faz#NYSE">FAZ</a>).
Emerging markets plays for the day: Global X China Consumer ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/chiq#NYSE">CHIQ</a>), Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/brf#NYSE">BRF</a>) and the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eev#NYSE">EEV</a>).
Forex play of the day: PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/udn#NYSE">UDN</a>).
Bond play of the day: SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jnk#NYSE">JNK</a>).

CHIQ

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets

ETFs To Watch November 19, 2010 (DBB, EEV, FAZ, JNK)

AMZN

APKT

CAAS

EQIX

FFIV

HMIN

ISRG

MELI

NFLX

OPEN

PCLN

PWER

ROVI

RVBD

SNDA

SPRD

THOR

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

2010 Fund Performance Period 10

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) have become the new fad for 401k plans and individual investors. Folks have been flocking to the key gold ETFs via SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>), iShares COMEX Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) and even the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sgol#NYSE">SGOL</a>). In fact, the SPDR Gold Trust would be one of the top five or six central government banks in the world if measured solely in gold holdings.
Anytime you get a hot market, as we can see now with gold, you can bet more investment vehicles pop up to capitalize on the fad. Enter leveraged gold ETFs and ETNs, which add another layer to playing the gold market right now.
Two of the most obvious and liquid note-funds from the same family that take on leverage in the directional gold trades are the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>).
<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/10/14/leveraged-gold-etns-and-etfs/">Continue reading the article</a>.

Out-of-Control Gold Meets Leveraged ETN and ETF Products 

Year 4, Week 9 Major Position Changes
To see historic weekly fund changes <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/search/label/fund%20positions">click here</a> OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled '<a class="iAs" href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bookkeeping-weekly-changes-to-fund_12.html#" style="background-color: transparent ! important; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; color: darkgreen ! important; font-size: 100% ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; padding-left: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-top: 0pt; text-decoration: underline ! important;" target="_blank">fund</a> positions'.
Cash: 62.6% (v 63.7% last week) 
18 long bias: 25.2% (v 25.9% last week) 
7 short bias: 12.1% (v 10.4% last week)  [Note: Long <a class="iAs" href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-weekly-changes-to-fund_13.html#" style="background-color: transparent ! important; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; color: darkgreen ! important; font-size: 100% ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; padding-left: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-top: 0pt; text-decoration: underline ! important;" target="_blank">bond</a>, long dollar, and volatility positions considered 'short']
25 positions (vs 29 last week)
Weekly thoughts 
Same old story - all news is good news as long as the Bernanke Put is in play.  The questions go forward is how much is QE2 now in the market after a big run, and how many times can we rally on the same backdrop?  Economic data picks up this week, and earnings season kicks off although just a few names- the market is well overdue for at least a modest pullback, but until the psychology changes it is hard to front run.  Key levels on S&amp;P 500 are now 1118 (up from 1116) [the 200 day simple moving average], 1131, and 1150.  Over 1150, 1170 comes into play... below 1116, 1090 comes into play.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKnRWmJBEaI/AAAAAAAAOlY/6dVvI4GyP8s/s1600/sp500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKnRWmJBEaI/AAAAAAAAOlY/6dVvI4GyP8s/s400/sp500.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Last week some of the leadership stocks - massively overextended - finally took a bit of a break, but speculators simply rolled into the energy complex, driving up oil itself, solars stocks and some of the oil and oil service names.  Natgas (reliant on U.S. demand) remains a disaster.
Complacency is high at this point, as those looking for "a pullback" the previous 2-3 weeks appear to have thrown in the towel.  This is a necessary step in the sentiment turn.  The percent of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading over their 50 day moving average is now reaching extreme levels - closing in on 90%. 
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKnSQE1GNgI/AAAAAAAAOlc/S0B-hNMT75w/s1600/percent.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKnSQE1GNgI/AAAAAAAAOlc/S0B-hNMT75w/s400/percent.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Other than the very atypical period of mid March - mid April when the "V shaped" recovery was still the calling card of the bulls, this type of condition does not usually last too long.  So now we see what is more powerful - the pledge of free money from the Fed to manipulate asset prices upward (current thesis) or the belief by the majority that a normalized return to economic activity was right around the corner (late winter/early spring 2010 thesis)
-------------------------------
Economic data continued to matter little last week as good news = good news, and bad news = more QE.  This will continue until it doesn't - as simple minded as it seems.  At some point weaker economic news will matter, and many economic data points have stagnated or retreated to the worse levels of the past 6-7 months.  This week the 2 key reports will be ISM Services (much more an indicator of U.S. activity than ISM Manufacturing) and the labor data on Friday.  Thus far the U.S. has created "net" 800K jobs in 2010... but if you sniff around the birth death model and added up all the "gains" in businesses too small to count, I bet it would come in around 800K year to date. 
Monday: (10 AM) Factory Orders (10 AM) Pending Home Sales 
Tuesday: (10 AM) ISM Non Manufacturing 
Wednesday: (premarket) ADP Employment 
Thursday: (premarket) Weekly jobless claims (3 PM) Consumer Credit 
Friday: (premarket) Monthly labor data
-------------------------------
Portfolio
The market did not go anywhere last week on the whole, but it remained a difficult environment to make any ground on the short side.  The biggest wins were in a few of the "superstar" stocks that finally fell back but the timing had to be precise as those were the same stocks crushing shorts for 5 weeks straight.  The dollar continued to be crushed, and most commodities continued to rally - even the maligned energy sector picked up as speculators rotated into lagging groups.  Much like the "hot money" left the tech stock superstars once they were 'marked up' at quarter end, so did they leave agricultural commodities Friday.  We'll see if it's a 1 day wonder or a canary in the coal mine.
In the portfolio weightings were similar to previous week with a small uptick in short exposure - almost all short exposure at this time are pseudo shorts (long bond, long dollar, long volatility) because betting against the market in any form has been extreme pain for the past month.   A break of S&amp;P 1116 will have me looking for a 'big win' trade down to 1090, and that along with a SPY put position should help us make some gains on the downside when the day comes.   Most likely the move will come in premarket so I expect it to be hard to catch.  On the long side I cut some longer term positions that have simply run so far, and even on a decent pullback are far too expensive.  With earnings season coming many of these stocks have to perform to perfection to avoid some implosions.  Expectations are off the chart, based on stock prices.
On the long side:
<ul>
<li>Monday, <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-starting-home-inns-hotel.html">started</a> Chinese Home Inns &amp; Hotel Management (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/hmin#">HMIN</a>) on a technical breakout - if I was a very short term trader I could have been in and out of this position with a quick 6% gain, as the chart had laid out.  But once it did that, it stalled and fell back. </li>
<li>Tuesday, Cleveland Cliffs (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/clf#">CLF</a>) <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-closing-cleveland-cliffs.html">was sold</a> as it was stalling.  However, as speculators moved into lagging names the stock ran with the 'energy' complex late in the week so thus far a bad sale.</li>
<li>As the S&amp;P 500 fell back to 1131 area of support, I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-long-spy-calls-off-s.html">bought some</a> SPY Calls with intent to sell 10-15 points higher (from 1133).  This played out very quickly, indeed <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-selling-spy-calls.html">within hours</a> - but my fill price on the options was horrid and a 30%+ some gain was barely double digits. </li>
<li><a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-adding-to-spreadtrum.html">Added</a> to Spreadtrum Communications (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/sprd#">SPRD</a>) on a sharp pullback to the 20 day moving average.</li>
<li>Thursday at the open, <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-closing-out-three-generals.html">closed out</a> 3 "market general" positions in Netflix (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/nflx#">NFLX</a>), Amazon.com (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#">AMZN</a>),  Priceline.com (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/pcln#">PCLN</a>).  In retrospect shorting all 3 would have worked out quite well, but you never know when these sort of stocks will finally exhaust themselves... </li>
<li><a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-closing-thoratec-thor.html">Closed</a> Thoratec (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/thor#">THOR</a>) for non performance and reversing a breakout. </li>
<li><a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-selling-20-of-borgwarner.html">Sold</a> 20% of BorgWarner (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/bwa#">BWA</a>) to lock in gains,<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-selling-20-of-borgwarner.html"> and</a> 66% of Powershares DB Double Long Gold (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#">DGP</a>) as the commodity has been on fire. </li>
<li><a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-adding-to-acme-packet-apkt.html">Added to</a> Acme Packet (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/apkt#">APKT</a>) on a pullback to the 20 day moving average. </li>
<li>A <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/bookkeeping-limit-order-for.html">limit order</a> for Salesforce.com (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/crm#">CRM</a>) hit at a "gap" which coincided with the 50 day moving average; a tight stop loss was put in in case this is part of a larger move down.</li>
</ul>
On the short side:
<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs downgraded Intuitive Surgical (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/isrg#">ISRG</a>), so Monday <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-covering-half-of-intuitive.html">half the</a> position was covered, and Tuesday<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-covering-2nd-half-of.html"> the other half -</a> together about a 3% gain.  Not much but in this market it's a victory to make money on anything on the short side. </li>
<li>Wednesday,<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-putting-second-leg-into.html"> shorted a second leg</a> in Whirpool (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/whr#">WHR</a>) as the stock reached closer to resistance levels.  The company actually warned on the year the next day, but speculators did not care as the stock barely budged. </li>
<li><a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/bookkeeping-restarting-powershares-db.html">Restarted</a> a position in the much hated U.S. dollar with Powershares DB U.S. Dollar (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#">UUP</a>) - this is being used as a hedge and for a trade, not a long term position. </li>
</ul>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2335748440449035592-5875996212456750651?l=www.fundmymutualfund.com' alt='' /></div>
<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:63t7Ie-LG7Y"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=63t7Ie-LG7Y" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:V_sGLiPBpWU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:4cEx4HpKnUU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:4cEx4HpKnUU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=JoMOaKTqZws:VBPxn-N9g5Q:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0" /></a>
</div>
<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/FundMyMutualFund/~4/JoMOaKTqZws" height="1" width="1" />

Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year 4, Week 9

I am selling 20% of <s>BorgWarner.com</s> BorgWarner (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/bwa#">BWA</a>).  This has been an excellent core + trading stock; last purchase was in the $46 area <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-buying-back-some-magna.html">September 8th</a>; now it is in the $53s just three weeks later.  Hard to take any credit because if you throw a dart using your local zoo's monkey to choose stocks you are making money, so who knows how much of the move is due to the company itself and how much due to the rising tide.
I'll spare you talk of overbought, insane, ridiculous or other such comments.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKSdoEF47VI/AAAAAAAAOkA/hD1D5zDfsoU/s1600/bwa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKSdoEF47VI/AAAAAAAAOkA/hD1D5zDfsoU/s400/bwa.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>

I am selling 2/3rds of <s>Double Long Gold.com</s> DB Double Long Gold (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#">DGP</a>) - there is no fundamental reason to sell it as central banks are out of control.  Technically... well see comments above - I'll spare you talk of overbought, insane, ridiculous, etc.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKSelHXzBCI/AAAAAAAAOkE/QUgoFKosloc/s1600/dgp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TKSelHXzBCI/AAAAAAAAOkE/QUgoFKosloc/s400/dgp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Long BorgWarner; DB Double Long Gold in fund; no personal position 
 
 
x 
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2335748440449035592-6097197144726226422?l=www.fundmymutualfund.com' alt='' /></div>
<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:63t7Ie-LG7Y"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=63t7Ie-LG7Y" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:V_sGLiPBpWU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:4cEx4HpKnUU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:4cEx4HpKnUU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=nbPPzvIyjR8:T1IHq2BCW_0:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0" /></a>
</div>
<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/FundMyMutualFund/~4/nbPPzvIyjR8" height="1" width="1" />

Bookkeeping: Selling 20% of BorgWarner (BWA) & 66% of DB Double Long Gold (DGP)

CRUS

GTIV

HSIC

NDAQ

SYMC

TIBX

2010 Fund Performance Period 9

ProShares Ultra Silver (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/etf#">ETF</a>) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>) led the gainers among ETFs today with an increase of 5.21%. AGQ traded higher, as silver gained more than 2%. 
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/soxl#NYSE">SOXL</a>) opened the trading session in the negative territory, but it soon recovered and closed 4.90% higher. In the space, Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amat#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>) gained 3.06%, and closed at $11.11.
ProShares Ultra Gold (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/etf#">ETF</a>) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ugl#NYSE">UGL</a>) jumped 3.98% today, and closed at $57.45, as gold closed at its record high. UGL had a volume of 293K traded shares.
PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) is another bull market gold ETF that gained on the strength in gold. DGP jumped 3.88%, and had a volume of 1.13M shares.
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) spiked 3.75% today, as the miners did well today. New Gold Inc. (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/usa#">USA</a>) (AMEX: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ngd#AMEX">NGD</a>) jumped 3.07%, and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (AMEX: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/anv#AMEX">ANV</a>) added 2.85%.
<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/tryitnow/399344">Beat the market consistently by receiving real-time trade alerts from the ETF Professor!</a>
See Some of the Top Moving Indexes <a href="http://www.tickerspy.com/">Here.</a>

AMAT

SOXL

Benzinga's Top ETF Gainers (AGQ, SOXL, UGL, DGP, GDXJ)

Year 4, Week 6 Major Position Changes
To see historic weekly fund changes <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/search/label/fund%20positions">click here</a> OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled '<a class="iAs" href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bookkeeping-weekly-changes-to-fund_12.html#" style="background-color: transparent ! important; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0.075em solid darkgreen ! important; color: darkgreen ! important; font-size: 100% ! important; font-weight: normal ! important; padding-bottom: 1px ! important; padding-left: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-top: 0pt; text-decoration: underline ! important;" target="_blank">fund</a> positions'.
Cash: 66.7% (v 71.4% last week) 
22 long bias: 19.4% (v 28.3% last week) 
8 short bias: 13.9% (v 0.3% last week)  [Note: Long bond and volatility positions considered 'short']
30 positions (vs 26 last week)
Weekly thought 
It has become something of a running joke on how Monday's and especially Monday mornings have been the bedrock of this rally from March 2009.   So many times we've woken up to S&amp;P futures up 0.7%, 0.9%, 1.1% before the week begins ... without data in front of me I would not be surprised if 50% of the rally (in terms of points) from March 09 has been on Mondays, with half of that in premarket futures.  Much easier to get the stock market to where it 'needs to be' in the thin futures market.   This has become so predictable<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-beginning-positions-in.html"> last Friday I wrote</a>:
<blockquote>While this week was atypical we almost always start the week with a morning rally so we'll assume there is a gap up Monday and that should take us near S&amp;P 1115... or it might happen this afternoon since everyone knows we surge Monday morning seemingly 90% of the Mondays since March 09. </blockquote>

Lo and behold, S&amp;P futures 1115 @ 6 AM Monday morning.  Like clockwork.
So we'll keep it simple this week since every asset on Earth is now a computerized derivative of the S&amp;P 500.  We are looking at 2 levels as outlined last week... 1115 and 1130.   We've been in a nearly half year range of S&amp;P 1040 to 1130 with only small exception.  So either we are nearing the top end of our range or we are going to break through this very lengthy consolidation period. 
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI36nh5w3gI/AAAAAAAAOYA/oMygr26ANEY/s1600/sp500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI36nh5w3gI/AAAAAAAAOYA/oMygr26ANEY/s400/sp500.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
The index is not quite overbought yet despite being up every single day of September except last Tuesday.  However, the leading stocks are now extremely overbought, and as of Thursday-Friday of last week showing their first signs of fatigue.  So after "mark up" Monday morning I will be curious if they can keep running on fumes as many have risen 20-25% in under 2 weeks without relent.
The inverse of the S&amp;P 500 at this point (per algorithmic rule) is the Treasury market.  Last week in the weekly summary we said we'd like to see the 10 year make a run at its 50 day moving average around 2.82%, which should coincide with the main bond ETF (TLT) filling a gap at 102.  After a headfake Tuesday (again the only losing day of the month) this ended up playing out.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI369tgQBHI/AAAAAAAAOYI/Id-PJbz4Tcs/s1600/tlt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI369tgQBHI/AAAAAAAAOYI/Id-PJbz4Tcs/s400/tlt.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI37NP5oZ7I/AAAAAAAAOYQ/uOZ2c7sp1Ik/s1600/ust.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI37NP5oZ7I/AAAAAAAAOYQ/uOZ2c7sp1Ik/s400/ust.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
And that's really all there is to a simplistic, 1st grade logic market where all assets are almost perfectly correlated.  No need to complicate it past that.
-------------------------------
Last week was extremely quiet on the news front, as we have dead space ahead of earnings season and a vacuum of economic data.  This week, it picks up a bit but still not a bevy of the big name economic reports - the market most likely will key on Tuesday's Retail Sales, Wednesday's Industrial production, Thursday's Philly Fed, and perhaps Consumer Sentiment on Friday.  Thursday's weekly jobless claims now seem a moot point unless they rise over 500,000 or fall below 450,000... investors now seem very comfortable with recessionary job loss totals each week because "it's not getting worse".  The inflation data don't seem to matter much because whatever the figures - the Fed will be keeping rates at low levels forever and ever.  They promise.
Tuesday: Retail Sales (premarket), Business Inventories (10 AM) - retail sales might get a binary reaction in premarket 
Wednesday:  Empire State manufacturing and Industrial Production (premarket) - the latter might influence the premarket 
Thursday - Weekly claims, Producer Prices (premarket) and Philly Fed (10 AM) 
Friday - Consumer Prices (premarket), Consumer Sentiment (9:55 AM)
-------------------------------------
Portfolio
I spent the week getting more hedged the higher the index went up.  Many of my leadership stocks are now extremely overbought but people keep piling into them chasing and chasing.  What one could not give away 2 weeks ago people now are stampeding on each other to buy - oh humans.  Speaking of binary outcomes we have one approaching - either the market is going to peter out and begin a new leg down as we approach S&amp;P 1130, or off to the races we go on a new breakout.   Earnings season begins in about 3 weeks so that is going to be a catalyst as well as monthly employment data, ISM reports, and overseas manufacturing in about 2 weeks.  Between now and then, the computers are in complete control and we'll go where they want us to go.  One thing we are seeing is some relatively well known companies guide down - which is a new thing; thus far it's been ignored.
For the portfolio I put on some ancillary type hedges (volatility, and long bonds) so if the market breaks out to highs I won't be hurt as much as a direct bet against the S&amp;P 500.  Now that we are in the top 10-15% of the 5-6 months range I've been adding individual equity shorts in weak charts.  However if the student body left takes us over S&amp;P 1135ish I'd expect to have to cover a lot of merchandise, bring out my Kool Aid, an join the party.  It seems illogical that could happen without a rest first, since we've been straight up for nearly 2 weeks, but the low volume straight up rallies were the hallmark of March 09 - April 10 so we'll see if the computers (and the 'urgent buyer' in premarket) can pull it off again.
[Please note in portfolio view, my long volatility and long bond purchases are viewed as 'long' but in terms of market behavior I consider the 'shorts' or at least 'hedges']
On the long side:
<ul>
<li>Wednesday, I b<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-buying-back-some-magna.html">ought back decent sized exposure in the 2 auto suppliers</a> as we had a typical 90% day, and these were the only 2 stocks in the portfolio down.  The sector was downgraded, so I got back some Magna International (MGA) and BorgWarner (BWA) that I had sold off for profits at higher levels. </li>
<li>As gold retested old highs, I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-cutting-back-powershares-db.html">cut back</a> Powershares DB Double Long Gold (DGP) to lock in profits. </li>
<li>Thursday, I s<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-selling-index-longs-this.html">old some modest sized </a>index longs (TNA) as the S&amp;P 500 rallied on the weekly jobless claims number and rallied to S&amp;P 1110. </li>
<li>Thursday, I<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-another-round-of-profit.html"> took a sledge hammer to some names</a> as they had reached extreme overbought levels - mostly these were 'the generals': Acme Packet (APKT), Netflix (NFLX), Tibco Software (TIBX), Riverbed Technology (RVBD), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), and Amazon.com (AMZN). </li>
<li>I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-closing-titanium-metals-tie.html">closed a position</a> in Titanium Metals (TIE) which I had just started the previous week as it had not been participating in the rally </li>
<li>Friday, I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-small-touch-of-spreadtrum.html">added back</a> a very modest amount of Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD) as it finally fell to some minor support. </li>
</ul>
On the short side:
<ul>
<li>Tuesday, I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-short-monsanto-mon.html">shorted</a> Monsanto (MON) as it had broken support the previous week, and had rallied back into its support/resistance area of the 50 day moving average. </li>
<li>Thursday, I<a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-short-texas-instruments-txn.html"> shorted</a> Texas Instruments (TXN) as the semiconductor group had been lagging.  I was fortunate in the stock narrowed guidance a few hours after I shorted, and I was able to take a quick 2.5% profit <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-covering-half-of-texas.html">on half the position</a> Friday. </li>
<li>For some higher beta exposure, I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-short-intituitve-surgical.html">shorted</a> NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). </li>
<li>I <a href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-beginning-positions-in.html">began positions</a> in iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX (VXX) and iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT). </li>
</ul>

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>

A special shout out for the 2nd year in a row to our friends in Indiana, for nothing else than being on our schedule.  Even in the worst of football seasons, we always have an almost guaranteed win against Notre Dame.   If only Purdue was this easy to beat...
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI4BKO4eUiI/AAAAAAAAOYg/UAoy_3FyfgE/s1600/denard.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/TI4BKO4eUiI/AAAAAAAAOYg/UAoy_3FyfgE/s400/denard.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2335748440449035592-7233988255000973299?l=www.fundmymutualfund.com' alt='' /></div>
<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:63t7Ie-LG7Y"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?d=63t7Ie-LG7Y" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:V_sGLiPBpWU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:4cEx4HpKnUU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:4cEx4HpKnUU" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?a=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:gIN9vFwOqvQ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/FundMyMutualFund?i=SMD0R6J5AB4:gyI0UwO8oDQ:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0" /></a>
</div>
<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/FundMyMutualFund/~4/SMD0R6J5AB4" height="1" width="1" />

Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year 4, Week 6

I changed my mind about gold only a few days after my entry into the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>).  I am too nervous sitting right up here near the previous highs. (...)Read the rest of Have We Reached A Short Term Top In Gold ETFs? (DGP, GLD) 
Copyright 2010 ETFDAILYNEWS.COM 
The copying, republication or [...]
Related posts:
<ol>
<li><a href='http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/07/11/earnings-may-be-the-key-to-a-short-term-bottom-gld-aa/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Earnings May Be The Key To A Short-Term Bottom (GLD, AA)'>Earnings May Be The Key To A Short-Term Bottom (GLD, AA)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/07/28/gold-at-long-term-trend-support-key-level-highlighted-gld-xlf/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Gold At Long Term Trend Support, Key Level Highlighted (GLD, XLF)'>Gold At Long Term Trend Support, Key Level Highlighted (GLD, XLF)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/05/21/is-the-spdr-gold-etf-nysegld-a-sure-long-term-bet/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Is The SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) A Sure Long Term Bet?'>Is The SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) A Sure Long Term Bet?</li>
</ol>

Have We Reached A Short Term Top In Gold ETFs? (DGP, GLD)

ZC SP ETN REDEEM 15/02/2038 USD 25 - 25154H749

Comments

DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038

DB Gold Double Long ETN due February 15, 2038 (DGP) Options

No option chain data available. Please try again later

Popular Channels

Tools & Features

Partners & Contributors

About Benzinga