Option chain shows key data for DB Gold Short ETN due February 15, 2038's stock options at various strike prices and expiration dates. Traders use this information to analyze potential trades and assess market sentiment for DB Gold Short ETN due February 15, 2038.

DB Gold Short ETN due February 15, 2038 (ARCA:DGZ) Stock, Option Chain

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DGLD

Gold&#39;s Tumble Not Luring Traders To Inverse ETFs

Sector ETFs

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

Time To Sell Gold ETFs? (GLD, GDX, DGZ)

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Pre-Market Outlook

ETF Outlook for Wednesday November 13, 2013 (GLD, FXY, PGAL, GXG)

DB Gold Short ETN due February 15, 2038

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>), the world&#39;s largest exchange-traded product backed by physical holdings of bullion, has lost 10 percent year-to-date.
 With many market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting, GLD and rival gold ETFs are seeing their losses accelerate.
<h3>Gold On The Move</h3>
In just the past month, GLD is lower by 8.2 percent. On Monday, GLD notched its lowest close since the final trading day of the third quarter of 2009. As market participants continue resetting interest rate hike expectations to reflect the notion that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs following its December meeting, plenty of rate-sensitive asset classes and sectors are coming under intense scrutiny.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/11/5984991/gold-miners-etfs-are-getting-smoked">Gold Miners ETFs Are Getting Smoked</a></bzrelatedlink>
Add commodities and commodities producers to that list &ndash; a list that most certainly includes gold and gold mining equities. The November tale of the tape for leveraged gold miners exchange-traded funds <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/11/5969460/rate-hike-odds-shine-a-light-on-leveraged-gold-miners-etfs">reflects the havoc</a> traders expect will be wrought upon gold and bullion-producing companies as the Fed inches closer to higher interest rates.
Even with all of gold woes, many traders have not been tempted by various inverse gold exchange-traded products. Those traders are missing out.
<h3>Give Inverse Gold Another Look</h3>
Over the past month, the DB Gold Double Short ETN due February 15, 2038 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>) and the ProShares UltraShort Gold (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>), which attempts to deliver double the daily inverse performance of the London fixing gold price, have each soared nearly 18 percent. Yet, since the start of the current quarter, GLL has lost nearly $1.1 million in assets while DZZ has added a modest $7.6 million. 
Over the same period, GLD has bled more than $893 million. Only two ETFs have lost more assets during the fourth quarter than GLD. Year-to-date, GLD is lighter by $1.6 billion in assets, an outflows total exceeded by just eight other ETFs.
DZZ and GLL are not the only inverse gold ETFs receiving a chilly reception from traders. The DB Gold Short ETN due February 15, 2038 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>), the non-leveraged equivalent of DZZ, has climbed 8.8 percent over the past month; however, since the start of the fourth quarter, DGZ has lost nearly $19 million in assets. 
The Credit Suisse AG - VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgld#NYSE">DGLD</a>), which attempts to deliver triple the daily inverse performance of the S&amp;P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return, has surged a staggering 29 percent over the past month. One might think a performance like that would lure traders to DGLD, but the triple-leveraged ETN has seen fourth-quarter inflows of just $1.5 million. 
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/horizontal-pocket-gold-gold-nugget-626086/">Public Domain</a>

Gold's Tumble Not Luring Traders To Inverse ETFs

Gold fell by more than three percent on Thursday to close out the session at the lowest price in more than three years.

	The February gold contract closed at $1,193.60/ounce, after falling $41.40 or 3.4 percent on the day. Shares of the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) were trading down nearly two percent for the day and are down 3.6 percent in the last three trading days.

	The gold bubble burst and burst hard this year after putting in the twelfth consecutive positive year in 2012. GLD is down 29 percent in 2013 and the chart indicates there are lower prices ahead. The mining stocks have been hit even hard with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) losing 56 percent of its value this year and today it hit a new five-year low.

	See also: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/12/4170103/etf-award-winners-announced-bkln-phdg">ETF Award Winners Announced (BKLN, PHDG)</a>

	The announcement by the Fed yesterday to begin tapering of the monthly asset purchases was viewed as a negative for the precious metals and spurred on the latest wave of selling. As the Fed begins the winding down of its quantitative easing program it should eventually boost the value of the U.S. Dollar and interest rates will move higher, this will put downward pressure on precious metals.

	Another factor to consider has to do with the reasons why gold would be in an investors’ portfolio today or for the long-term. If the largest amount of central bank intervention ever was not enough to keep the rally in gold going, what will spur on the next wave of buying for the precious metal?

	The days of gold as a currency alternative appear to be over. The days of gold as a safe haven have also disappeared. And when all asset classes are analyzed for a portfolio, gold is one of the least attractive options. The combination of all factors do not bode well for gold and its investors.

	Investors that are interested in profiting from a falling gold price could consider the DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>). The ETN will track the daily inverse movement of the price of gold futures. Today the ETN is rallying 1.8 percent and is at the best level in five months and is on the verge of a major breakout.

	In the end, the fundamental reasons to own gold are no longer apparent and the technicals are flashing a sell signal. It is time to let gold complete its pullback and revisit at a later time.

Technicals

McCall's ETF Alert: Gold resumes downtrend after failing to breakthrough 50-day moving average. Short Gold ETF (DGZ) up ~0.2%

ETF Outlook for the Wednesday, November 13, 2013

	SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>)

	Comments from several Fed Presidents today had the market on the defensive after it appeared tapering is on the table at the December meeting. With the jobs picture still cloudy that does not appear to likely, however when a Fed President speaks, the market listens.

	As the taper concerns spread through the market it held back stocks, but the real damage was it the commodities market. Oil fell to the lowest level in months and gold is closing in on a multi-month low. GLD closed down by 1.15 percent at its lowest closing price in 4 months. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) fared even worse, with a loss of 2.1 percent and the ETF is now down 49 percent for the year.

	On the flip side there is the DB Short Gold ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>), which closed up 1.2 percent and matched its best intraday high in 4 months. The path of least resistance for gold is down and this is one asset class to avoid at this time.

	Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>)

	A perfect storm for a weak Yen could be brewing again. If the Fed decides to taper in December it will boost the value of the U.S. Dollar, thus putting pressure on foreign currencies such as the Yen. The latest reports out of Japan have not been great and this is another negative for the country’s currency. Finally you have PM Abe who has stated his intentions to lower the value of the Yen to fight deflation.

	Put this all together and you have FXY at a new 2-month low yesterday. The ETF closed at $98.03 and if it cannot hold $97.38 it could continue to fall and retest the 2013 low of $94.38. As the Yen fall the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) breaks out to a multi-month high. The two-times inverse leveraged ETF will do the opposite of the Yen on a daily basis, multiplied by two. This is an aggressive play, but could be a winner for traders if the perfect storm his the country of the rising sun.

	Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF (NYSE: PGAL)

	The first ETF concentrating solely on Portugal will begin trading today under the symbol PGAL. The ETF is made up of 20 stocks that trade on the NYSE Euronext Lisbon exchange. Global X filed for this ETF nearly two and a half years ago and it have finally come to fruition. The country’s stock market is up 15 percent this year and up over 40 percent since it hit a low in the summer of 2012. Now investors can own all the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) via ETFs; Portugal was the lone country without its own ETF. If the turnaround story in Europe continues it could see PGAL attracted decent assets in the next year.

	Global X InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gxg#NYSE">GXG</a>)

	Not an obscure ETF, but definitely one that is not on the top of many investors wishlist is GXG. The reason it is mentioned here this morning is because it is working on a 12-day losing streak. The ETF has not had an up day since 10/25. In that time GXG has lost 10.7 percent and is trading at the worst level since July.

	Last week the country said it is looking for GDP growth of 3-5 percent in 2014, which is not too shabby with the current slow growth world economy. However, the country has its own issues it is dealing with that stretch from geopolitical uncertainty to a debt issue that is expanding rapidly. The reward is not the risk at current prices, but there could be a time in the future that investors take a change on Pablo Escobar’s birthplace.

The decade-long bull market in gold began to crumble two years ago and now the metal appears to be in the early stages of a long-term bear market.

	Friday, the price of the yellow metal is falling another two percent as it hits a three-month low. There are rumors the sudden drop this morning was caused by one large trade of 5k gold futures contracts.

	Whether the rumor proves to be true is not relevant. What is important is that the long-term and short-term trends are bearish and that investors must prepare for lower prices.

	The Gold ETFs

	The two most popular gold ETFs are the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>). The ETFs are designed to track the day-to-day movement of the price of gold bullion; the shares are backed by physical gold. Each ETF is down 11 percent in the last six weeks and are also hitting a three-month lows.

	If the ETFs continue the downtrend and retest the multi-year low set in late June they will have to fall another six percent. This may sound like a big move lower, but it may only be the start of a much deeper drop for the gold ETFs.

	Looking at the charts and the amount of money coming out of gold, it would not be a stretch to see the precious metal fall another 20 percent if the June low is breached. This would not happen overnight and it would not be a straight line down, however it is very possible.

	Inverse Gold ETNs

	Investors that agree with the synopsis above regarding the likelihood of a further drop in the price of gold could consider profiting from the move. There are a number of ETFs that will gain in value as the price of gold decreases and vice versa. The PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) is designed to provide investors with 100 percent of the inverse of a gold futures contract.

	For example, since August 27, DGZ is up 11.4 percent and GLD is down 10.6 percent. The returns are not always exactly the inverse, but typically they are close.

	The aggressive trader that likes to push the envelope could consider the PowerShares DB Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>) that will seek to return 2x the movement of a gold futures contract. From 8/27/13 the ETN is up 24 percent. The leveraged ETN is only for the experienced trader that knows how to properly use the vehicle. If not used in the correct manner it could lead to major losses.

	Keep in mind that a long-term trend has many peaks and troughs throughout the time the trend plays out. The current downtrend in gold will have rallies in the future, but as long as the overall trend remains lower the best strategy is to not own the metal or have a short position.

ETFs To Play The Fall Of Gold (GLD, IAU, DGZ, DZZ)

By&nbsp;<a href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/author/johnwhitefoot/" rel="author" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" title="Posts by John Whitefoot">John Whitefoot</a>

	Gold prices&nbsp;hit one-week highs after the&nbsp;<a data-mce-href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/federal-reserve/" href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/federal-reserve/" title="Federal Reserve">Federal Reserve</a>&nbsp;did exactly what it said it would do (not what the market feared it would do)&mdash;continue it&rsquo;s $85.0-billion-per-month bond buying program until unemployment numbers decrease and inflation increases.

	Gold, often seen as a safe haven investment and hedge against inflation, had lost more than 20% of its value since the beginning of the year after the Federal Reserve hinted it would start to taper quantitative easing, which would put an end to its loose&nbsp;<a data-mce-href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/monetary-policy/" href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/monetary-policy/" title="monetary policy">monetary policy</a>.

	More recently, gold prices had been on the decline since the beginning of September on encouraging U.S. economic data and suggestions that a war in Syria would be averted. Between September 3 and 17, gold lost approximately six percent of its value.

	But in spite of gold&rsquo;s year-long tumble, it&rsquo;s important to remember that gold prices are still roughly 60% higher than they were in late 2008, before the Federal Reserve kick-started its first round of quantitative easing.

	Gold was poised to fall even further had the Federal Reserve announced it would begin to taper its quantitative easing policies. It didn&rsquo;t, however, and the markets responded in kind.

	The price of gold bullion soared 4.2% last Wednesday to around $1,367 per ounce, its largest daily gain since June 2012, after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said it would stick to its stimulus plan (for now).

	The correction in gold prices was inevitable. That&rsquo;s because gold, and many other sectors, have become overly reliant on the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s support. Gold prices drop when investors think the Fed&rsquo;s going to taper, and they rise when it doesn&rsquo;t. Even the risk of war in the Middle East takes a back seat to the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s quantitative easing program.

	While the correction in gold prices was inevitable, so too is the fact that the Federal Reserve will eventually begin to scale back quantitative easing, though probably not until early 2014. When it does, gold prices will likely resume their decline. After all, encouraging economic data will point to sustained U.S. growth&mdash;and less of a need for a low-interest-rate environment.

	All of this will negatively impact gold bulls. That said, investors can gain exposure to gold regardless of the fluctuations. Long-term investors looking to benefit from rising gold prices might want to consider a gold exchange-traded fund, (ETF) like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) or iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>), individual mining shares, or even physical gold.

	More active investors will focus on futures and options. That said, with quantitative easing on the backburner and few major political triggers out there to spark fear into the markets, short-term investors looking to make money on gold are probably going to want to take a breather.

	Or investors could look at ETFs that short gold, like the ProShares UltraShort Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>) or PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>). They could also consider an ETF that shorts gold&nbsp;<a data-mce-href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/mining-companies/" href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/mining-companies/" title="mining companies">mining companies</a>, like Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dust#NYSE">DUST</a>).

	While it&rsquo;s impossible to predict where gold prices will go, there is enough economic and geopolitical sentiment to make a case for going either short or long with gold. Thankfully, there are a large number of investing strategies to suit any outlook.

	This article&nbsp;<a data-mce-href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/precious-metals/how-to-profit-from-golds-current-price-instability/1868/" href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/precious-metals/how-to-profit-from-golds-current-price-instability/1868/" target="_blank">How to Profit from Gold&rsquo;s Current Price Instability</a>&nbsp;was originally published at&nbsp;<a data-mce-href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com" href="http://www.dailygainsletter.com/" target="_blank">Daily Gains Letter</a>

DUST

How to Profit from Gold's Current Price Instability

Precious metals and the Swiss franc are the clear winners in Monday's early trading, as there is little improvement in the debt ceiling negotiations in the United States, while at the same time the market euphoria over the EU agreement on Greece is fading. At around 5:40 GMT, the euro moved one step closer to parity with the franc as the European currency lost 0.73% of its value to trade around 1.1678, while the greenback slid 0.8% to 0.8126. At the same time, gold was pushed to new heights as the yellow metal passed through the $1,615 mark. At the moment, gold is trading around $1,615.65, or 0.81% above previous close. Silver is trading over the $40 barrier once more. Currently, silver stands at $40.55, or 1.16% above previous close.

Precious metals and the franc are traditionally seen as safe-havens by investors, as shelters to turn to in times of big crises and uncertainties. World is moving towards another crisis as the U.S. debt ceiling talks fail to progress. Over the weekend, the two sides were unable to break the ideological deadlock between them. Republicans still want to reduce the massive U.S. deficit through spending cuts, while Democrats are more comfortable with taxing the rich than with slashing spending on social welfare programs for the U.S. elderly and the poor.

As the negotiations approach August 2, the day when the U.S. government will not be able to repay its debts and will be forced to shut down, the stakes are rising. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/25/us-usa-debt-downgrades-idUSTRE76O0BE20110725">Rating agencies</a> have warned they will slash their triple-A rating on the U.S. government bonds if shutdown takes place. However, rating agencies have also warned that the only way to safeguard the highest rating for the U.S. bonds will be to reach a credible plan to reduce the U.S. budget deficit. 

Other countries are becoming increasingly agitated over the failure to reach a debt ceiling agreement. Vince Cable, U.K.'s Business Secretary, has attacked the U.S. Republicans over their failure to compromise with President Obama. Speaking in a BBC show, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14267091">Mr. Cable</a> placed the blame for the current stalemate on “a few right-wing nutters in the American Congress”. It remains to be seen how Republicans and the U.S. public will respond to a strong criticism of the G.O.P. by the member of a foreign government. However, other governments should fear the U.S. government shutdown, since it is likely that the effects will be felt across the globe.

U.S. Treasury Secretary, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14268147">Tim Geithner</a>, remains confident that the last ditch efforts will be made and the worst case scenario will be avoided. Many traders still seem to believe the same, as the U.S. dollar is holding ground against its main rivals on Monday. At the moment, the U.S. dollar made a small retreat against the Japanese yen, falling 0.17% to stand around ¥78.41. At the same time, the euro added only 0.01% to its value against the greenback to trade around $1.4359.

The European currency is again under attack as the euphoria over the second Greek bailout eases. Rating agencies have warned that any “voluntary” participation of the private sector in the Greek bailout will be viewed as selective default and now they are starting to act on their promises. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/22/fitch-puts-greece-on-restricted-default">Fitch</a> was the first to confirm it will put Greece into a “restricted default” rating. 

On Monday, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/25/us-markets-ratings-greece-idUSTRE76O0I420110725">Moody's</a> slashed its rating on Greece by three notches from Caa1 to Ca, citing serious medium term insolvency problems. Policies agreed by the Europeans and the Greek government, which include privatization and austerity cuts, remain deeply unpopular among the Greek people. Many analysts are therefore rightfully worried that the Greek government will have huge difficulties in implementing the agreed reforms.

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that the two U.S. parties will not be able to reach an agreement by August and that Greece will falter in implementation of the agreed reforms, which should send the value of safe-havens skyrocketing, might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxf#NYSE">FXF</a>) is a long play on the franc. FXF should rise if the franc appreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>iPath Dow Jones-AIG Precious Metals Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jjp#NYSE">JJP</a>) is a long play on precious metals. JJP is expected to rise if prices of precious metals increase.</li></ul>

<ul><li>E-TRACS CMCI Gold ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ubg#NYSE">UBG</a>) is a long play on gold. UBG should rise if the price of gold increases.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that there is enough pragmatism among the U.S. political elites to reach a compromise and that the European determination will eventually prevail over its debt problems may consider an alternate positions: 

<ul><li>ETFS Short Swiss Franc Long US Dollar ETC ETF (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/schf#">SCHF</a>) is a short play on the franc. SCHF should rise if the franc depreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) is short play on gold. DGZ should rise if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>) is another short play on gold. However, GLL should rise more than DGZ if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Forex

Economics

iPath DJ-UBS Precious Metals Subindex Total Return ETN

SCHF

Precious Metals and Swiss Franc Rise Strongly as Debt Worries in Europe and the United States Continue

Market confidence seems to be recovering following a new deal on Greece. On Thursday, the Eurozone leaders agreed on the form of the second Greek bailout and markets have responded by eating into the value of safe havens. At around 5:40 am GMT, the U.S. dollar rose 0.42% against the Swiss franc to trade around 0.8184, while the euro added 0.2% to its value against the franc to stand around 1.1777. The Swiss franc has probably been the main beneficiary, among currencies at least, of the financial crisis that started in 2008 in the U.S. and then quickly spread to the whole world. Precious metals, other popular safe havens, were also in retreat of Friday. At the moment, gold fell back below the $1,600 mark, sliding 0.18% to stand around $1,588.25. Silver is also trading below an important $40 barrier, losing 0.93% to stand around $39.06.

It seems as if the Europeans have managed to find a long-term solution to Greece's problems, which has calmed the markets. On Thursday, the Eurozone leaders agreed on <a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/market-insights/2011/07/22/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter">a range of new measures</a> aimed at restoring financial stability in the debt-ridden country. The size of the new bailout was set to €109 billion. The Germans have managed to persuade other countries that it is crucial for the private sector to bear some of the costs of the crisis. It is estimated that the “voluntary participation” of the private sector to the bailout will amount to around €37 billion. In order to restore financial stability in Greece, debt maturity was raised from 7.5 years to a minimum 15 years and a maximum of 30 years. At the same time, Greece will be given a grace period of 10 years.

For a long time, the Europeans were trying to prevent the Greek crisis from spreading to other countries. In essence, they have failed miserably in this quest, since the crisis has spread to other peripheral economies. At this point, it was important to minimize the spillover effects of the Greek crisis on other debt-ridden countries on the Eurozone periphery. In order to achieve that, the Europeans had to get Greece out of the headlines. In other words, the second bailout has to be the real thing. The Eurozone cannot afford Greece to be forced into the corner again in a few months time. A decisive action was needed and the Europeans have stepped in when it mattered, or so it seems. 10 year grace period, longer debt maturity and lower interest rates should give enough time to Greece to stabilize its finances and shelter the troubled country from the attacks of bond market speculators.

Markets have responded positively to the news as both the euro and the European bank stocks rose following the news. The ultimate question is how long will the euphoria last. After all, the Europeans might try to avoid the word but this is a type of default. The Europeans might speak about voluntary participation of the private sector, but there is nothing voluntary about accepting <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14245250">a 20% haircut</a>, which is a part of two options the Greek bond holders have at their disposal. The rating agencies have already warned the Europeans they will view any “voluntary” participation of the private sector in the second bailout as a default. It remains to be seen if Moody's, Fitch and S&amp;P will start targeting Italy and Spain after one Eurozone country was allowed to declare default.

There is a lot of risk in the new Greece bailout plan. Above all, it sends a message that the Eurozone countries can default. The Europeans were, of course, very quick to point out that Greece was a onetime thing. However, as <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/21/greece-defaults/">Felix Salmon of Reuters</a> pointed out, the precedent deals never happen only once. It remains to be seen if the haircut in Greece will scare investors away from holding bonds of other Eurozone countries like Portugal, Ireland, Spain or Italy. If this scenario becomes reality, Greece might not be the only Eurozone country allowed to default on parts of its debt.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, tax increases for the rich remain the main stumbling block between the two sides. The Democrats have accepted deep spending cuts asked by the Republicans, which control the House of Representatives, in order to bring down the massive U.S. budget deficit. However, the Republicans seem reluctant to agree on raising taxes for the rich. As the combination of tax increases and spending cuts is the only option acceptable to the White House, the shutdown of the U.S. government becomes a more likely scenario with each day passing.

In spite of recent setbacks for safe havens like the Swiss franc and precious metals, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the global economy. The shutdown of the U.S. government, or credit rating cuts in the Eurozone periphery, could cause massive problems for the world economy, ultimately resulting in double dip recessions across the globe. It the global economy turns the wrong corner, the value of the franc, gold and silver will be rising to new heights very soon.

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that the market confidence in the Eurozone will be short-lived, which should provide a lot of tailwind for safe-heavens, might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxf#NYSE">FXF</a>) is a long play on the Swiss franc. FXF should rise if the franc appreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ELEMENTS MLCX Precious Metals ETN (NYSE: PMY) is a long play on precious metals. PMY should rise if the prices of precious metals increase.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) is a double long play on gold. DGP should rise if the price of gold increases.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that the Eurozone has turned the corner and the U.S. is about to do the same in the next few days, which would restore market confidence and persuade a number of investors to leave safe havens, may consider an alternate positions: 

<ul><li>ETFS Short Swiss Franc Long US Dollar ETC (Sterling) ETF (SCHP) is a short play on the Swiss franc. SCHP should rise if the franc depreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) is a short play on gold. DGZ should rise if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>) is another short play on gold. However, GLL should rise more than DGZ if the price of gold decreases.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Market Confidence Recovers following New Greece Deal, but for How Long?

The Swiss currency is continuing to gather strength against the euro on Tuesday. At around 6 am GMT, the euro lost 0.14% of its value against the euro to stand around 1.1521. At the same time, the greenback recovered some of its earlier losses, rising 0.09% to 0.8183.

The franc is considered by many as a safe-haven or a place where traders can find shelter from global uncertainties and risks. There is certainly no lack of uncertainties in today's world, as both the Eurozone and the United States are struggling to resolve their debt problems. According to a survey compiled by <a href="http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/franc-most-overpriced-currency-and-rising-1.840001">Bloomberg</a>, the median estimate is for the franc to finish the year at 1.26 against the euro, while in April the median estimate was 1.34. 

At the moment, three Eurozone members – Greece, Portugal and Ireland - have their credit rating set to junk by at least one credit rating agency. Even bigger problem is that the crisis does not end there. In fact, it is spreading to Spain and most recently Italy. Italy has the highest debt to GDP ratio among the Eurozone countries, after Greece of course. Recently, the Italian government has passed a new package of austerity cuts aimed at eliminating the country's budget deficit by 2014 through both houses of parliament. Markets are not convinced this is enough, it seems, as the <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0719/1224300947237.html">yield on Italian 10-year bonds</a> rise above 6%. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds is also higher, rising to 6.36%. Both the Italian and Spanish bond yields are dangerously approaching the 7% landmark, after which investors normally lose faith in a country.

Spain is also under a threat of a new financial crisis, as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14169940">five of its banks fail to pass the stress test</a>. Other banks that failed the test include one Austrian bank and two Greek banks. This group should be extended to the German bank Helaba, since the bank withdrew from the test after it became clear it will not be able to pass the test.

The greatest concern of most traders remains Greece. The troubled Eurozone member had to be bailed out twice since the onset of the financial crisis. In spite of many attempts to control its debt, Greece is only seeing a rise in its debt to GDP ratio. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14177208">The IMF</a> recently stated Greece's debt is still manageable but it is on a “knife's edge”. The Eurozone leaders have agreed upon a new bailout for Greece, but its exact form is yet to be decided. Things should be a lot clearer later this week when the Eurozone leaders gather to discuss the debt crisis. The most influential member of the Eurozone, Germany, is aggressively pushing the idea that private players, most notably banks, should bear some of the costs of the crisis. 

There are a number of options on how to make the private sector participate in resolving the Greek crisis, the problem is the credit rating agencies have already made their position clear. Any “voluntary” extension of debt maturity or lowering of interest rates by banks will be viewed as a default. A default in Greece will most likely quickly spread to other troubled economies. A <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/18/us-eurozone-debt-idUSTRE76H2GB20110718">new proposal involves taxing banks</a>. This way, the Europeans might avoid their plan being declared a Greek default by credit rating agencies.

Across the Atlantic, the US is fighting its own debt war, as Republicans and Democrats make little progress on raising the debt ceiling. Republicans want very deep public spending cuts, while Democrats want to balance spending cuts with raising taxes for the rich. So far, not much progress has been made in reaching a compromise. If the two sides do not reach an agreement, the U.S. government will be forced to shut down as early as August 2. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-debt-idUSTRE7646S620110719">President Obama</a> said that any deal should be made by the end of this week, in order to provide enough time to turn the deal between two sides into law. The Obama deadline is approaching very quickly, and the two sides' positions do not seem to be getting any closer. 

Debt fears in the Eurozone and the United States have pushed gold over $1,600 mark, a new record. At the moment, gold is trading around $1,608.05, or 0.16% above yesterday's close. At the same time, silver also climber higher, adding 0.78% to its value to stand around $40.84. Like the franc, precious metals are seen as very safe investments and their price tends to rise as global economy approaches a slump. 

ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe that the Eurozone and the U.S. debt woes will push the global economy back into recession, which should provide a lot of headwind for the franc and precious metals, might want to consider the following trades: 

<ul><li>CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxf#NYSE">FXF</a>) is a long play on the franc. FXF should rise if the frank appreciates.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ELEMENTS MLCX Precious Metals ETN (NYSE: PMY) is a long play on precious metals. PMY should rise should the prices of precious metals climb higher.</li></ul>

<ul><li>E-TRACS CMCI Gold ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ubg#NYSE">UBG</a>) is a long play on gold. UBG should rise if the price of gold continues to increase.</li></ul>

Bearish: Traders who believe that the U.S. and the Eurozone will avoid the worst case scenario, which should send the franc and precious metals into retreat from all time highs, may consider an alternate positions: 

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) is a short play on gold. DGZ should rise is the price of gold declines.</li></ul>

<ul><li>PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>) is another short play on gold. DZZ should rise more than DGZ, should the price of gold fall.</li></ul>

<ul><li>ETFS Short Swiss Franc Long US Dollar ETC ETF (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/schf#">SCHF</a>) is a short play on the franc. SCHF should rise if the franc depreciates.</li></ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Swiss Franc Continues Rallying against Euro as Debt Fears Persist

Are you prepared for the end of QE2?

The end of Quantitative Easing will no doubt be a shock for the American stock markets, as well as for global markets. It's not a question of if but when it will end. And when it does, you need to be ready.

The following trading ideas will help you profit from the fateful day Big Ben announces the end of easy money and zero percent federal funds rate.

Gold Short ETN – The PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>) follows the opposite of the gold price. You will not want to be caught on the long side of the gold trade when the Fed decides to raise interest rates. There is no doubt that a stronger dollar will eat away at the gold price. All things likely, investors' immediate reactions will be a rush for the exits. Without a doubt, there will be a sharp correction to the price of gold; a short position will be a good hedge against the temporary damage that the Fed's announcement may do to the markets. 

Crude Oil Short ETN – The gold short principle also applies to oil, as a stronger dollar buys more oil (for lack of a more complex explanation). Investors will certainly be in a rush to abandon their long oil positions after Big Ben announces a fed tightening, and you can profit from PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/szo#NYSE">SZO</a>), which moves inversely to the price of oil.

ProShares Short QQQ ETF – The Short QQQ ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/psq#NYSE">PSQ</a>) moves inversely to the NASDAQ 100, and is a good general hedge against sharp negative moves in the market. This ETF would be good to scoop up a few days ahead of the Fed announcement.

VIX Futures ETN – The VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vxx#NYSE">VXX</a>) follows the Volatility Index, which is the measure of shorts and other hedges against long positions. Investors will definitely be buying downside protection for their long positions after the Fed announces its first rate increase. If you're not privy to shorting gold and oil, you can profit from the spike in the VIX by buying this ETN.

Barclays 10-20 Yr Treasury Bond ETF – The 10-20 year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tlh#NYSE">TLH</a>) seeks results that correspond to the performance of US Treasury Bond obligations with maturities between 10 and 20 years. Expect this one to pop when the Fed decides to hike rates, as its value will rise as treasuries' valuations rise.

Disclaimer
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommends that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you perform your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

Five Stocks For The End Of QE2 (DGZ, SZO, PSQ, VXX, TLH)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watchlist for Thursday May 20, 2010.
With gold looking poised for a fall, watch the PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>).
The same can be said for silver, so watch the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zsl#NYSE">ZSL</a>).
On continued weakness in global equity markets, track the ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/efz#NYSE">EFZ</a>).
The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewz#NYSE">EWZ</a>) continues to get smashed.
On that note, keep an eye on the Direxion Daily Latin America Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: LHB).
Several key European ETFs were up on Wednesday, a theme that may short-lives, so keep an eye on the ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epv#NYSE">EPV</a>).
Financials are likely to be weak, meaning the ProShares Short Financials (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sef#NYSE">SEF</a>) will be in play. 
Watch the iShares MSCI Singapore Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ews#NYSE">EWS</a>) on that country's bullish GDP report.

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

ETFs To Watch May 20 (EWS, DGZ, EFZ, ZSL)

In the last period of sharply rising prices (the late 1970s), Gold shot from $100 to $850. This gold bull began at $250 9 years ago, and Gold bug such as hedge funds manager John Paulson believes it may peak well above $2,125 an ounce before this one's over.
Last Thursday Gold price plummeted $50 as mounting debt worries out of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS countries) and boosted the dollar to a multi-month high. 
Is it still a good time to jump on the bandwagon?
4 Reasons to Hold Gold 
1. Even though we're still in a deflationary environment, there will be a time when we have to worry about inflation as government spending continues to grow. 
2. Central banks like India and China hold much more of their reserves in the U.S. dollar than in gold for economic and political reasons, but there's a clear, long-term diversification away from the greenback and Gold is benefit from this trend. 
3. Gold’s price is highly correlated with political instability and has negative correlation with stock market (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/149636-portfolio-diversification-is-key-consider-these-etfs" title="http://seekingalpha.com/article/149636-portfolio-diversification-is-key-consider-these-etfs">http://seekingalpha.com/article/149636-portfolio-diversification-is-key-consider-these-etfs</a>).
4. In September 2009, Barrick Gold (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/abx#">ABX</a>), the 2nd largest gold-mining company in North American, lifted its hedge against gold prices falling, an admission it expects gold prices to continue to rise.
18 Major Gold-Mining Companies 
#	Name (Symbol)	Mkt cap	P/E	Forward P/E (1yr) 
1	Barrick Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/abx#NYSE">ABX</a>)	35.23B	-	13 
2	GoldcorP (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/gg#">GG</a>)	26.02B	23	28 
3	Newmont Mining (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/nem#NYSE">NEM</a>)	22.66B	30	15 
4	AngloGold Ashanti (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/au#">AU</a>)	13.92B	-	16 
5	Kinross Gold Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kgc#NYSE">KGC</a>)	11.95B	-	26 
6	Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/aem#NYSE">AEM</a>)	8.48B	140	28 
7	Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gfi#NYSE">GFI</a>)	8.19B	27	9 
8	Compania de Minas (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bvn#NYSE">BVN</a>)	7.85B	24	11 
9	Yamana Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/auy#NYSE">AUY</a>)	7.67B	22	14 
10	Randgold Resources (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gold#NASDAQ">GOLD</a>)	6.27B	118	- 
11	Lihir Gold Limited (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lihr#NASDAQ">LIHR</a>)	6.24B	-	- 
12	IAMGOLD Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iag#NYSE">IAG</a>)	5.15B	104	18 
13	Eldorado Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ego#NYSE">EGO</a>)	4.94B	27	31 
14	Harmony Gold Mining (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hmy#NYSE">HMY</a>)	4.03B	23	14 
15	Royal Gold (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rgld#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>)	1.81B	41	30 
16	New Gold Inc (AMEX: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ngd#AMEX">NGD</a>)	1.64B	-	18 
17	Gammon Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/grs#NYSE">GRS</a>)	1.27B	217	11 
18	NovaGold Resources (AMEX: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ng#AMEX">NG</a>)	1.03B	-	-
Gold mining companies have their own business risks influenced by many factors, such as the grade and depth of the deposit, financial as well as operation issues. 
Production cost varies among these companies, from Eldorado Gold (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/ego#">EGO</a>)’s $300 an ounce to Gold Fields (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/gfi#">GFI</a>)’s $600 an ounce. Also, profits can swing wildly for companies lacking of price hedges. 
10 Gold ETFs 
#	Fund Name (Ticker) 
1	SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) 
2	Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) 
3	iShares COMEX Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) 
4	PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgp#NYSE">DGP</a>) 
5	Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ugl#NYSE">UGL</a>) 
6	PowerShares DB Gold (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgl#NYSE">DGL</a>) 
7	PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dzz#NYSE">DZZ</a>) 
8	UltraShort Gold ProShares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gll#NYSE">GLL</a>) 
9	PowerShares Global Gold &amp; Prec Metals (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/psau#NASDAQ">PSAU</a>) 
10	PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>)
SPDR Gold Trust (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#">GLD</a>) is now the second-largest ETF, after SPDRs (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#">SPY</a>) which tracks the S&amp;P 500. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#">GDX</a>) consists of companies involved in the gold mining industry. 
Conclusion 
According to Douglas Breeden, professor of Duke University, historical statistics are insufficient for accurately assessing risk. Since 1975, housing prices have never declined in the U.S. for a full 5 to 10 year period. Yet, price declines have occurred in 2008 and 2009 that have never been seen, or even imagined, since the Great Depression of the 1930s. One of the worst misuses of models is to look at history to determine the worst that has been seen and concluded that it is the worst that can be. The problem is that the historical scenario may not be bad enough. We need to think about circumstances that have not occurred but are possible.
Besides its use in jewelry, gold serves very few functions. For protection against inflation, you can always use iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (<a class="ticker" href="/stock/tip#">TIP</a>), or as Warren Buffett does: investing in companies that have the ability to pass on price increases. With average forward P/E of 19 for major gold mining stocks, it might indicate Gold is overvalued.
However, no one knows when and where the next shoe will drop. Even without a potential new round of stimuli, current level of U.S. borrowing indicates that the U.S. dollar may depreciate over the long term. Sooner or later inflation might come. If the world really does falls into the cliff, gold might prove a nice insurance. I allocate a few pentane of my portfolio in gold mining stocks, just for a peace of mind. 
Disclose: I have long position on ABX, NEM, and TIP. Data are from iShares (<a href="http://us.ishares.com" title="http://us.ishares.com">http://us.ishares.com</a>), Google and Yahoo Finance as of February 5, 2010.
Stocks: ABX, AEM, AU, AUY, BVN, DGL, DGP, DGZ, DZZ, EGO, GDX, GFI, GG, GLD, GLL, GOLD, GRS, HMY, IAG, IAU, KGC, LIHR, NEM, NG, NGD, PSAU, RGLD, TIP, UGL

GOLD

LIHR

PowerShares Global Gold & Prcious metals Portfolio

PSAU

RGLD

Hedging With Gold Miners (AEM, GFI, NGD, DGL)

The investors looking for an inverse exposure to gold can invest in the inverse gold EFTs. 
Some of the inverse gold ETFs are PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: <a href="/stock/dgz">DGZ</a>), PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a href="/stock/dzz">DZZ</a>) and ProShares UltraShort Gold (<a href="/stock/etf">ETF</a>) (NYSE: <a href="/stock/gll">GLL</a>).
All of these ETFs - PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN, PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN and ProShares UltraShort Gold (<a href="/stock/etf">ETF</a>) - can also be used to to hedge against the current exposure to gold.

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Telecommunications & Infrastructure Fund

Hedge Against Gold Exposure With Inverse Gold ETFs (DGZ, DZZ, GLL, GDX)

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