Immigration Rhetoric Meets Real Estate Reality: Surging Border Arrivals Set To Intensify U.S. Housing Market Competition

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said that undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," and President Joe Biden is considering stricter border policies.

But with more than 10,000 migrants per day arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border, the impact on the U.S. housing market is expected to become even more competitive. Net immigration will account for 67% of population growth in the next 10 years — up from 54% since 2013, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate & Consulting.

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Immigration-related growth will impact housing markets across the U.S., especially in California, Florida, Texas, Nevada and the Northeast. John Burns expects the U.S. population will increase by more than 1.8 million per year through 2033 — 400,000 more than recent U.S. Census Bureau projections.

"We believe future immigration will resemble 2014-1017 more than the lower levels of 2019-2021 caused by the pandemic and restrictive government policies," John Burns report authors Eric Finnigan and Chris Burns wrote.

Because new immigrants typically rent, higher demand for rental housing is expected — especially for homes that can accommodate multiple generations and have more bedrooms at attainable price points.

With the influx of migrants, the labor shortage is likely to ease over the next few years as the tight U.S. job market attracts foreign workers.

Increased competition in the housing market from immigrants has added $3.7 trillion to U.S. housing wealth and helped to stabilize communities across the U.S., according to New American Economy, which found that immigrant workers strengthen the housing market in a few ways:

• They drive demand through their purchasing power.
• They generate demand by attracting U.S.-born people to opportunities in growing areas. For every 1,000 immigrants settling in a county, 250, U.S.-born people follow, drawn by increased economic opportunity.
• They shift demand for housing in metro areas toward less desirable neighborhoods, helping them become viable alternatives for middle- and working-class Americans.

But New American Economy concludes that although immigration increases home values in many areas, it is not adding to the affordability crisis in America's most expensive cities or pricing people out of desirable communities.

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