Mortgage Meltdown — U.S. Lending Crashes 70% After Pandemic Homebuying Surge

According to ATTOM’s first quarter 2024 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report, U.S. home mortgage lending plummeted nearly 70% from a high point in 2021 during the pandemic-induced homebuying frenzy that pushed prices to record highs.

Residential mortgage lending dropped 7% in the first quarter of 2024 to its lowest point since 2000. Lenders issued 1.28 million residential mortgages worth $405.6 billion during the first quarter, down 4.8% from a year ago.

The decline came amid high mortgage interest rates — up to 7% — and skyrocketing home prices that many American households can't afford. A low supply of homes for sale also influenced the drop in mortgage lending.

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"There is reason to hope that we will see something of a turnaround when second-quarter data comes in, given the jump in lending activity that happened during the peak homebuying season of 2023," ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said. "But with little sign that interest rates are coming down, which could fire up refinance and HELOC [home equity line of credit] lending, or that supplies of homes for sale are going up, any increase is likely to be limited."

Purchase mortgages slumped throughout the United States but remain the top loan type sought. Loans to homebuyers dropped for the third straight quarter after about a 25% surge last spring.

The $214.8 billion purchase loan volume in the first quarter of 2024 was down 6.7% from $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 7.8% from $233.1 billion in the first quarter of 2023.

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The largest quarterly decreases were in Wichita, Kansas, down 66.5% from the fourth quarter; Mobile, Alabama, down 54.2%; St. Louis, down 45.3%; Manchester, New Hampshire, down 39%; and Buffalo, New York, down 38.3%.

Refinance mortgages are up year over year but are far below their peak. The 490,953 refinance mortgages in the first quarter of 2024 were down from 500,323 in the fourth quarter of 2023, although still up 11.4% from 440,890 a year ago.

Even so, refinance mortgages are down 82.1% from a peak of 2.7 million in early 2021, when mortgage rates below 3% sent refinance deals soaring. Refinance packages totaling $149.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024 were down 1.2% from $151.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The most significant quarterly declines were in St. Louis, down 35% from the fourth quarter; Green Bay, Wisconsin, down 30.1%; Madison, Wisconsin, down 26.9%; Honolulu, down 25.5%; and Scranton, Pennsylvania, down 23.9%.

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