Two REITs That Just Crushed Earnings Estimates And Guidance

Beginning investors often ask, "What makes certain stocks go up, while others don't appreciate at all?" Although there are several answers, one of the main reasons that stocks move higher is when good earnings reports are released.

Investors want to own stocks that have increased earnings over the past year and beaten the analyst consensus estimates. Analysts' opinions often influence stock movements, so when a company beats the analysts' estimates it sends a message to investors that its stock is undervalued. Consequently, the stock often moves up substantially following an earnings beat.

Take a look at two real estate investment trusts (REITs) that just beat the estimates on first-quarter earnings, revenue and forward guidance.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust PEB is a Bethesda, Maryland-based hotel REIT that invests in upscale hotel and resort properties in or near 13 urban markets in major U.S. gateway cities. Most of its 46 properties are located in California and Florida. 

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Pebblebrook Hotel has been on a tear since November when it traded in the mid $11 range. Its total return before its first-quarter earnings report was 31.77%. Much of that was because of a strong fourth-quarter 2023 earnings report in February that easily beat the Street estimates and its year-over-year results for funds from operations (FFO) and revenue.

It wasn't surprising that on April 24, it repeated that performance with first-quarter operating results. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.21 per share beat the consensus estimate of $0.15 per share by 40% and walloped its FFO of $0.11 from the first quarter of 2023. Revenue of $314.069 million was ahead of the consensus estimate of $303.776 million and also topped its revenue of $305.719 million from the first quarter of 2023.

In addition, Pebblebrook announced it expects AFFO of $0.59-$0.63 per share for the second quarter of 2024. Analysts were expecting $0.56 per share. 

Pebblebrook was up about 1% in early morning trading after the earnings release.

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Agree Realty Corp. ADC is a Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based triple-net-lease REIT, with a focus on retail properties. Its portfolio includes 2,161 owned and operated properties totaling 45 million square feet across 49 states. Sixty-nine percent of its tenants are investment grade, including well-known names like Walmart Inc. WMT, Best Buy Co. Inc. BBY Dollar General Corp. DG and Kroger Co. KR.

Despite an excellent long-term track record since its initial public offering in 1994, Agree Realty has been an underperformer in 2024. Before the earnings release, it had a total return of negative 8.2% year to date. Over the past 52 weeks, the total return was negative 9.27%. 

But that hasn't tempered management's optimism and enthusiasm. Agree Realty has seen substantial insider buying over the past 12 months as share prices have declined. This chart shows the large number of shares bought by insiders over the past three and 12 months, as opposed to shares sold:

Insider Trade	3 Months	12 Months
Number of shares bought	177,547	383,335
Number of shares sold	31,825	48,189
Total shares traded	209,372	431,524
Net activity	145,722	335,146

Additionally, on April 8, Agree Realty announced an increase in its monthly common dividend from $0.247 to $0.25, giving it a 2.9% annual raise. The dividend will be paid on May 14 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 30, with the ex-dividend date on April 29. A dividend raise just before an earnings announcement is often a positive sign that upcoming earnings will meet or exceed expectations. 

So perhaps it's not too surprising that on April 24, Agree Realty announced its first-quarter earnings and the results were excellent. FFO of $1.03 per share beat the analysts' estimate of $1.01 per share. The FFO also topped Agree's first-quarter 2023 FFO of $0.98 per share. Revenue of $149.453 million beat the consensus estimate of $146.462 million and was an 18.03% increase from revenue of $126.618 million in the first quarter of 2023. 

On full year 2024 AFFO, Agree said it sees $4.10-$4.13 per share. The Street's estimate was $4.07. Investors were impressed, and shares traded over 2% higher in early morning trading following the report’s release.

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