Jeff Bezos Believed Amazon Only Had A 30% Chance of Succeeding And Warned His Parents They May Lose Their Investment

In 1994, Jeff Bezos worked at the D. E. Shaw & Co. hedge fund, where his job involved delving into potential business prospects in the emerging internet domain. It was then that he stumbled on a statistic that would be the catalyst for an extraordinary idea to launch his venture.

Statistics showed that the internet was growing at a rate of 2,300% per year. This caught Bezos's attention — he saw the potential for the internet to revolutionize the way people shop. The high growth rate sparked the idea for what is now Amazon.com Inc. 

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Over the last 29 years, Amazon evolved from being a small online bookseller into an e-commerce giant boasting a market capitalization of $1.42 trillion. 

But at 30 years old, before launching Amazon, Bezos found himself at a crossroads. He was torn between staying with his secure job in New York City or seizing the opportunity to embark on his entrepreneurial journey. To help make the decision, he pictured himself as an 80-year-old man, reflecting on his life.

“I pictured myself 80 years old, thinking back on my life in a quiet moment of reflection,” he said in a CNBC interview. “Would I regret leaving this company in the middle of the year? And walking away from my annual bonus?” 

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Bezos recognized that personal life decisions, especially those made in the heat of the moment, can be perplexing. He deliberated over his options, striving to avoid future regrets.

In the interview, Bezos expressed his determination to avoid future regrets. He emphasized the importance of seizing the opportunity for his groundbreaking idea. Bezos revealed that he believed in his concept, and the thought of not pursuing it haunted him. He acknowledged the possibility of failure but stated that he would never regret attempting and falling short. His mindset, as he said, was the driving force behind his decision to take the leap and embark on his entrepreneurial journey.

At the time, venturing into the internet realm was a gamble. Despite the its exponential growth, the internet remained relatively unfamiliar to many people. Bezos believed anything, even small, had enormous potential with the rapid growth of the internet. 

Bezos bid farewell to his job and relocated to the Seattle suburbs. He started Amazon in his garage with a few employees. Along with support from his parents and wife, MacKenzie, Amazon was born. He had to convince investors that Amazon was a viable business, but he succeeded. 

Reflecting on those early days, Bezos revealed his mindset in a 2000 interview, three years after Amazon’s initial public offering. 

“I thought there was a 30% chance that we might build a successful company,” he said. “I never thought we’d build what Amazon has turned into, and I’m the most surprised on the planet.”

He had a candid conversation with his parents, cautioning them that their $245,573 investment in Amazon might be at risk. But their gamble paid off. Amazon rapidly expanded, going public in 1997 with $16 million in revenue and a customer base spanning more than 100 countries, as detailed in its Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Bezos said the journey exceeded all his expectations. He recalled how he started by personally delivering packages and selling books. He never envisioned the colossal empire that Amazon has grown into over the past 29 years.

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