67% Of Investors Say Trump Is Better For Stocks Than Biden, But Market Predictions Are All Over The Map

In a landscape where economic policy and market performance often intersect, a CNBC survey found that investors prefer former President Donald Trump’s potential impact on the stock market.

The poll, which surveyed 400 investors, traders, and money managers, found that 67% believe Trump would benefit stocks more.

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CNBC said the sentiment appears to be rooted in historical performance. During Trump’s four-year tenure, the S&P 500 surged 68%, while the Nasdaq saw a 137% climb. In contrast, under Biden’s administration thus far, the same indexes have gained 44% and 34%, respectively.

However, the investment community is divided on the market’s near-term trajectory. The survey found an even split among respondents; a third anticipate a drop, another third expect gains, while the remaining third see a rangebound market.

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That uncertainty reflects the factors influencing today’s economic landscape. While presidential policies can sway market sentiment, other elements often play a more important role. As Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, told the New York Times, “Markets are politically agnostic. With good reason: it doesn’t matter.”

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The recent market rally has been largely attributed to investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) rather than political developments. CNBC noted that Microsoft emerged as the front-runner in the AI race, with 50% of survey respondents viewing it as best positioned to capitalize on the tech. Surprisingly, Nvidia did not make the top of that list. 

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions continue to be a factor. Two-thirds of those polled expect the Fed to cut interest rates before year’s end (with many seeing a rate cut as soon as September), a move that could impact the market.

Interestingly, despite the clear preference for Trump regarding market performance, investors showed concerns about the current state of the major indexes. Eighty percent of respondents admitted feeling uneasy about the heavy concentration of tech stocks in the benchmarks.

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Looking beyond equities, the survey highlighted India as the most attractive overseas market, followed by Japan and Europe. Corporate bonds emerged as the preferred investment vehicle in the absence of stocks.

As the 2024 election approaches, investors are reminded that while presidential rhetoric often ties market performance to administration policies, the reality is far more nuanced. Historical data shows that markets have generally trended upward regardless of which party occupies the White House.

Ultimately, as the survey results indicate, while investor sentiment may lean toward Trump for potential market gains, the road ahead for stocks appears as unpredictable as ever.

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