Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan, one he claims would be the largest in U.S. history, has stirred major controversy over its projected economic and social fallout. Experts predict eye-popping costs and significant labor market impacts that could disrupt entire industries reliant on immigrant labor, from agriculture to construction.
The American Immigration Council (AIC) estimates that removing the approximately 11-14 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. could cost taxpayers a staggering $967.9 billion over the next decade.
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With around $88 billion in annual expenses, this initiative could outspend major federal programs, including NASA. Beyond cost, the AIC notes that mass deportation could shrink the U.S. GDP by 4.2-6.8%, threatening a downturn comparable to economic recessions.
Trump's plan has put the spotlight on private contractors who profit from the deportation process, especially companies running detention centers and chartering deportation flights. As Trump's promises for “mass deportation” gain traction, these corporations foresee a potential windfall.
“With a mass deportation plan, you need a mass detention plan,” said Jesse Franzblau, a senior policy analyst at the National Immigrant Justice Center. He warned that expanding this scale could significantly grow the detention industry, which relies on private contractors for nearly every part of immigration enforcement.
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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) already contract with for-profit companies to set up detention facilities and organize flights, with GEO Group and CoreCivic among the biggest players. Another Trump presidency could mean expanded contracts worth billions.
In its latest earnings call, GEO Group hinted at potential gains from a Trump presidency, which could bring policy changes favorable to the company’s 17 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centers. These contracts, valued at about $1 billion yearly, stand to benefit significantly from any shift in federal funding.
“We have a total of 10,000 beds at several idle Secure Services facilities that we believe are well-suited to support ICE's mission," James Black, GEO's head of Secure Services, noted.
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CoreCivic executives also mentioned keeping options open around their South Texas Family Residential Center in Diley. The Biden-Harris administration ended CoreCivic’s $150 million contract in June, shutting down the detention center that once housed women and children.
However, critics argue that the profit motives behind these contracts could lead to cost-cutting at the expense of humane treatment.
Vicki Gaubeca of Human Rights Watch voiced concerns that "private contractors are motivated by the bottom line, not by care," warning that these companies may “cut corners whenever possible.”
Oversight has long been a concern, with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement noting it has "multilayered oversight" to ensure humane treatment. However, past audits have found issues with contractor-run facilities, such as inadequate conditions and a lack of transparency.
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The cost extends beyond detention centers. Deportation flights, essential for transporting detainees back to their home countries, are major revenue sources for companies like Classic Air Charter and CSI Aviation.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement paid over $8,500 per flight hour on chartered 737s last year, a lucrative arrangement for these private flight brokers. According to the Center for Human Rights, these companies are also known to serve VIP clients, raising eyebrows about the use of taxpayer dollars on flights that alternate between deporting migrants and shuttling rock stars and sports teams.
"Anytime there's government secrecy, it's rife for abuse," said Angelina Godoy from the Center for Human Rights, underscoring the concern around taxpayer-funded secrecy in deportation operations.
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