Mark Zuckerberg Stands to Gain From TikTok's US Ban: Analysis Shows Meta Could Reap Billions In Ad Revenue - Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)

Meta Platforms Inc. META reportedly stands to gain significantly if TikTok, a popular social media platform, is banned from U.S. app stores this Sunday.

What Happened: TikTok’s legal team warned that the app could “go dark,” cutting off access for existing users to view videos. Such a ban would significantly affect one of the largest social media platforms in the U.S., potentially freeing up billions in ad revenue and user engagement, according to an analysis by eMarketer on Friday, reported Business Insider.

According to the analysis, TikTok raked in $12.34 billion in U.S. ad revenue in 2024. If the app faces a ban, an estimated $6.17 billion to $8.64 billion in ad spending could be redirected. Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, stands to capture a significant share, potentially gaining between $2.46 billion and $3.38 billion in ad revenue.

Morgan Stanley analysts also predict that Mark Zuckerberg’s company would emerge as the “largest fundamental winner of any TikTok ban,” leveraging its extensive user base and robust data capabilities. They estimate such a ban could boost Meta’s earnings per share by 5% to 9% in the 2026 fiscal year.

Instagram is projected to absorb a significant portion of the time U.S. users currently spend on TikTok. In 2024, TikTok users in the U.S. averaged nearly an hour daily on the app, with almost 75% also active on Instagram, according to EMARKETER.

While Meta is poised to gain the most, Alphabet Inc.’s GOOG GOOGL Google’s YouTube and Snap Inc.’s SNAP Snapchat could also benefit from TikTok’s absence.

Why It Matters: The U.S. Supreme Court upheld a ruling on Friday that TikTok would be banned in the country unless the parent company ByteDance sold off the American portion of the business. This decision is based on “well-supported national security concerns” regarding TikTok’s data collection practices and its relationship with a foreign adversary,

Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, also demanded a ban on TikTok, calling it a “national security risk” amid reports that Elon Musk may buy it.

Despite the uncertainty, the looming ban has already had an impact. VPN searches have skyrocketed by 800% as users seek workarounds, and TikTok has announced plans to cease operations in the U.S., although users can still download their personal data.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Consumer Tech coverage by following this link.