New York Fed Survey Shows Lowest Short-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Since April 2021

Expectations among consumers regarding near-term inflation dipped in June to the lowest point since April 2021, while the outlook for inflation over the next five years climbed to its highest since March of the previous year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed on Monday.

This survey serves as an appetizer for the highly anticipated June consumer inflation data, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, with the CPI inflation rate forecast to fall to a two-and-half-year low of 3%.

The stock market recovered its session losses, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY rising 0.1% for the day and the QQQ Invesco Trust QQQ remaining flat after losing as much as 0.6% at lunchtime.

The Falling Short-Term Inflation Expectations

According to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the short-term inflation expectations of U.S. consumers have been decreasing for three consecutive months. The median expectation for inflation one year ahead saw a 0.3 percentage point drop to 3.8%, the lowest recorded since April 2021, a sharp contrast from the peak of 6.8% in June of the previous year.

Long-Term Inflation Predictions

Forecasts for inflation over the next three and five years are approximated at 3% each. The three-year outlook remained steady, while the five-year inflation prediction saw an increase of more than 20 basis points.

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Expectations for Gasoline and Food Declined

According to the New York Fed survey, inflation expectations in two crucial sectors — gasoline and food — have declined. Over the next year, consumers anticipate gasoline prices will climb by 4.7%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the rise in food prices is expected to slow down by 0.1 point to 5.3%. This decline in expectations reflects the significant difference from a year ago, when consumers were bracing for a 9.6% hike in food prices.

Home Price Growth and Income Outlook

The survey also revealed that expectations for home price growth surged to 2.9% last month from 2.6% in May, marking the fifth consecutive increase and the highest level since July last year. The household income outlook saw a 0.1 percentage point decrease, forecasting a rise of 3.2%. Spending growth expectations dropped to 5.2% — the lowest level since September 2021 — from 5.6%.

Household Perception and Employment Expectations

Consumer perceptions about their current financial conditions have improved, with a greater number of respondents reporting an improved financial status compared to a year ago. Respondents were also more optimistic about the coming year, with fewer expecting to be worse off and more predicting improved financial conditions.

Job-related apprehensions showed a mixed trend, with an increased probability of job loss over the next year, a lower likelihood of voluntarily leaving one’s job, and decreased odds of finding a new job.

According to the survey, the chances of finding a new job fell to 55.3% in June from 56.4% in the previous month.

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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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