Consumer Sentiment Upgraded, Home Sales Plummet: What Economic Data Means For Fed's Next Move

Following the release of lower-than-expected inflation data, consumer sentiment in December — as measured by the University of Michigan — has been revised upwards from earlier projections. Meanwhile, data on home sales dropped in November.

Pending home sales were down by 7% year-over-year last month.

Friday’s Economic Data: Key Highlights

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has been revised upward in December, now standing at 69.7, surpassing the initial estimate of 69.4. This marks the strongest reading since July 2023.
• The revision is primarily driven by a notable improvement in consumer expectations, which have been adjusted upward to 67.4 from the initial figures. However, the index for current conditions has seen a slight downward revision from 74 to 73.3.
• Year-ahead inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.1%, while long-term inflation expectations have seen a minor increase from 2.8% to 2.9%.
• Simultaneously, the U.S. Census Bureau has reported an unexpected and substantial 12.2% drop in new home sales data for November, compared to October figures.
• Sales of new single-family houses have reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 590,000 in November 2023, marking the most significant decline since April 2022. This figure falls well below the market’s earlier forecast of 658 thousand homes for the same period.

Market Reaction: Wall Street traded higher in early morning trading in New York. A lower-than-expected PCE inflation report in November further ignited speculation for rate cuts next year.

• The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was 0.5% higher at 10:15 A.M. ET.
• The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ surged 0.4%,
• The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA inched 0.2% higher.
• Small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF Trust IWM, continued to outperform large-cap benchmarks, up 1.1%.
• The dollar eased 0.3%, while US Treasury yields held broadly steady.

Now Read: US Growth Remains Robust: Fed Doves To Drive Markets In Early 2024

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