What Happened: Speaking in his podcast on Wednesday, Cowen said President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariff hikes is widely seen as a bullish macro signal, but it may only be a temporary relief.
"The tariffs on China actually increased, and considering how much business we do with them, that's not something to brush off," he explained.
He emphasized that markets often experience sharp rebounds after a 20% drop, as seen with the S&P 500 recently, but historical analogs suggest those rallies don't always last. "This kind of volatility doesn't just vanish," Cowen noted.
Also Read: Bitcoin Back Above $80,000: What Does Technical Analysis Say?
Why It Matters: For Bitcoin, Cowen sees $69,000 as critical support and still preserve the overall bullish structure he said but cautioned that losing that level could flip his outlook more bearish.
He added that despite short-term choppiness, Bitcoin continues to hold above its previous 2024 highs — a sign of strength. Still, the macro backdrop remains uncertain and could weigh on risk assets, especially if China-related tensions escalate.
What's Next: Cowen outlined two potential scenarios:
- If the market mimics prior non-recessionary corrections, Bitcoin could continue climbing.
- If it follows the 1998-style playbook, BTC might form an intermediate top in mid-to-late April, then retest recent lows before pushing back to previous highs by July.
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