Market Update

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Bad Breadth Is Masking Opportunities
Back from vacation and diving into a big week. The S&P 500 is just over 5% away from hitting its all-time high, FED's poised for a rate hike, second quarter GDP and big tech earnings are rolling in. Coffee in hand? Let's conquer this week together!
The Retail Army Is VERY Bullish
Do with this information as you see fit: Jim Cramer said this week he doesn’t see a recession in the cards for the US…
Institutional Vs. Retail Investors: Who Ya Got?
Are we inching closer to the elusive “soft landing”? An increasing share of global fund managers sees it as the most likely outcome over the next 12 months:
What The Nasdaq-100 Will Look Like After July 24
Economists expect this morning’s retail sales data to show the strongest growth since January. If a recession is coming, somebody forgot to tell the consumer!
Economists Push Out Recession Forecasts... Again
Last quarter's earnings day moves were 3.6x the average daily move. Will we see more of the same this season?
Wall Street's Biggest Bull Gets More Bullish
Market veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. economy has shifted from a “rolling recession” to a “rolling recovery”. He says large parts of the residential real-estate sector had been in a recession for eight quarters. But a sharp rise of 12% in new home sales (among other sectors) in May marked the start of the recovery.
Short Week, Big Data
I hope you all enjoyed a relaxing Independence Day and Canada Day long weekend. Despite everything the stock market has been unbelievably resilient. The NASDAQ posted its strongest first 6 months of the year since the early 1980s. What do we think the next 6 months hold?
Strong Economy Gives Fed Ammo To Hike
Especially Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) which is on the cusp of making history by becoming a $3 trillion market cap company. Apple hit $3 trillion in early 2022, but didn't manage to close there. The stock is up 51% year-to-date. Will Apple keep soaring to new heights?
Is A VIX Floor Approaching?
The housing market is resilient. Sales of newly constructed homes were up 12.2% in May from April, and up 20% from a year ago. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates don’t want to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate according to Bloomberg. Will this continue?
Positioning Is Becoming Less Bullish
SEC approves first ever leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 83% in the past 6 months. Is it going higher?
EM To Overtake US Market By 2030
It’s been an amazing first half of the year for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ 100 index is on track for best first half to a year ever. Can the run continue?
JPMorgan Says Household Excess Savings Gone By October
Warren Buffett has donated another $4.64 billion of Berkshire Hathaway stock to five charities. This boosts his total giving since 2006 to more than $51 billion.
There Have Never Been Fewer US Homes For Sale
The Bank of England delivers surprise half-point rate hike to 5%, the highest in 15 years. They say the risks to inflation are “skewed significantly to the upside”.
Mr. Powell Goes To Washington
The S&P earnings yield, corporate bonds and treasury bills are all offering the same yield of 5.3%. So a medium risk, low risk and no risk asset is offering the exact same yield…  What a time to be alive!
Don't Call It A "Skip"
Jerome Powell said the FED’s forecasts have been wrong on inflation the last 2 years. Now he’s saying rate cuts aren’t going to happen for another couple years. Can we really depend on these projections anymore?
All Eyes On Fed Decision, Powell Presser
It’s FED day. Will they raise interest rates or pause? Here’s what Wall Street thinks:  25 BPS HIKE ️ CITI CREDIT SUISSE TD VISA NO RATE HIKE 🙅‍♀️ BARCLAYS BMO
Junk In The Trunk
CPI inflation for May comes out at 830am. Here are Wall Street estimates: GOLDMAN SACHS: 4.2%  UBS: 4.1%  MORGAN STANLEY: 4%  JP MORGAN: 4.2%  BARCLAYS: 4%  VISA: 4%  BLOOMBERG: 4%
First Tech Fund Outflows In 2 Months
This week is one of the most important of the summer:  - CPI Inflation: Tuesday - PPI Inflation: Wednesday - FED Meeting: Wednesday  - Retail Sales Data: Thursday  - Initial Jobless Claims: Thursday Buckle up!
Household Net Worth Jumps By Over $3 Trillion
The S&P 500 just entered a new bull market. It’s up 20% from the October 12, 2022 low. Finally, some good news!
Didn't Expect That, Eh?
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, says the U.S. is going to issue a large amount of government debt and there is a shortage of buyers. He calls this the beginning of “big cycle debt crisis”.
Binance Is In The Hot Seat
Delinquencies spiked in May on mortgage bonds tied to offices. Vacancy rates on office space across the U.S. has hit a record +16%. LA is at +30% vacancy for downtown office space. Yikes.
Narrow Market Breadth: Not As Bad As You Think
Credit card debt hit a record $1 trillion in America. The average household carries $10,000 on their card - another record It’s nearly impossible to build wealth when you’re paying 20% interest every month.
FOMO Is Going Around
We are 9 days away from the debt ceiling deadline. As of right now there’s no deal. Here are the effects of a breach according to Moody’s: 1 week: 1.5 million jobs lost, raising the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 5%. 2 months: 8 million jobs lost, raising the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 7.8%.
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