The 2023 holiday shopping season started for many and will kick into high gear for others with the annual Black Friday shopping holiday, which offers discounts from a number of publicly traded retailers.
Here's a look at the trends for consumers for the 2023 holiday shopping season.
What Happened: Several retail companies reported quarterly results during the Thanksgiving holiday week.
Retail stocks could remain volatile through the months of November and December based on holiday shopping trends.
A new survey from Goldman Sachs points to holiday shopping trends and could identify which stocks could stand out to investors.
The survey said 61% of consumers will spend the same or more in 2023, which comes with the backdrop of high inflation and macroeconomic concerns.
Consumers answered the survey leaning towards being more conscious of discounts and prices when looking for gifts. Sixty-seven percent of consumers surveyed said that sales and discounts were more important than their overall holiday shopping plans for 2023.
The survey found the following retailers and ranked them for where consumers plan on spending the most during the holiday shopping season.
- Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN
- Walmart Inc WMT
- Other
- Target Corp TGT
- Don't Know
- Not Shopping
- Kohl's Corporation KSS
- Macy's Inc M
- Best Buy Co BBY
- Costco Wholesale Corporation COST
In the survey, Walmart gained from last year. Department stores in the survey came in weaker with Macy's flat and Kohl's down from the previous year.
The survey found that gift cards, toys and games, and apparel are the most likely purchased items from consumers as gifts.
While many plan on spending more during the 2023 holiday shopping season, 78% said gifts are more expensive, a likely result of inflation.
The survey also found holiday shopping started earlier in 2023 than in past years based on the answers from consumers.
This continued a trend of holiday shopping starting earlier every year since 2019, outside of 2021. The earlier shopping trends could benefit Amazon, which hosted a Prime Day event with discounts in October.
Related Link: Black Friday Preview: ‘Consumers Will Likely Show Up’ — 14 Retail, Technology Stock Picks From Analysts
E-commerce Trends: A report from Wedbush highlights the continued growth of e-commerce for the 2023 holiday season.
E-commerce growth is expected to be 2x total retail for the 2023 holiday shopping season.
"Despite inflationary pressure and macro uncertainty, we believe expectations for U.S. e-commerce growth this holiday season are healthy and point to a resumption in pre-pandemic trends as e-commerce growth is set to significantly outpace offline retail growth," the report said.
The average expectation for e-commerce growth is +8.8% year-over-year compared to growth of 4.1% for retail growth according to the report.
"Amazon is better positioned than it has ever been for the holiday season, in our view, following a significant buildup in fulfillment capacity over the past several years and the more recent shift to a regional fulfillment network which is reducing delivery times."
Wedbush analysts said items being delivered same-day or next-day is an important advantage for Amazon.
The timing of Christmas Eve on a Sunday could also benefit Amazon according to the report with customers of the e-commerce giant still able to get last-minute deliveries that day, while USPS and third-party companies might not deliver then.
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