EXCLUSIVE: Will Trump's Tariffs Hurt Or Help Stock Market? 59% Say This…

President Donald Trump continues to plan and place tariffs on imported goods from several countries, due to what he calls an unfair trade balance with other nations.

A recent Benzinga poll shows what impact Trump's tariffs could have on the stock market.

What Happened: On Tuesday, Trump said he plans to place tariffs on several sectors, including automotive, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Trump said automotive tariffs would come "in the neighborhood of 25%." A report said the tariffs could come as early as April 2.

Semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs would also come around the 25% level and could increase throughout 2025. No date for these tariffs has been announced or planned by Trump and the White House administration.

Trump has targeted China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs or threats of tariffs since taking office in January.

Benzinga recently asked if the tariffs could impact stock market indexes like the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY.

"How will Trump's tariffs affect the stock market?" Benzinga asked.

The results were:

• Weigh down: 59%
• Push higher: 23%
• No real impact: 19%

The majority of respondents said Trump's tariffs will send the stock market lower. The remaining voters were split nearly even between the stock market going higher as the result of tariffs or the tariffs not having a real impact on stock market returns.

Read Also: Why Beer, Tequila, Avocados, Cars, iPhone Prices Could Rise: Trump’s Tariffs On Canada, Mexico, China To Hurt Several Sectors

Why It's Important: Trump recently said the White House will go country by country and adjust trade relations with "fair and reciprocal" tariffs.

This process, along with targeting certain specific industries, could see stocks hurt by the impact as costs are passed on to companies and consumers for the trade wars.

“I’ve decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will charge a reciprocal tariff, meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America,” Trump said, as reported by NBC. “In almost all cases, they’re charging us vastly more than we charge them but those days are over.”

Benzinga recently polled readers to see if they think the tariffs on China will be good or bad for the American economy.

“Will Trump’s tariffs on China help or hurt the U.S. economy?” Benzinga asked.

The results were:

• Hurt businesses and consumers: 54%
• Help the economy: 36%
• No real impact: 10%

The winner of the poll was that tariffs on China will hurt businesses and consumers in America.

While Trump has called the tariff moves a way to fight the trade imbalances, other countries have threatened America with retaliatory measures like tariffs of their own or other measures. The Wall Street Journal said China was looking to target American companies with antitrust concerns. The list of companies China could target includes Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom and Alphabet.

China is now turning its attention to targeting American technology companies with trade relations escalating according to a new report.

The Wall Street Journal said China is looking at targeting American tech companies with antitrust concerns in the country. The list of companies China could target includes Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom and Alphabet.  

A previous Benzinga reader survey asked how high investors thought the SPY could go in 2025, Trump’s first year back in the White House.

In 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 21.7%. This was the first year with Trump in office and many sectors saw gains during the year.

When asked what they thought the return of the SPY would be in 2025, these were the results:

• 16%+: 26%
• 11% to 15%: 22%
• Will Decline: 22%
• 6% to 10%: 19%
• 0% to 5%: 12%

The poll found that the largest percentage believed that the S&P 500 Index would post gains of at least 16% in 2025. The 11% to 15% range came in second place at 22%.

It's also worth pointing out that the S&P 500 decline in 2025 was tied for second in the poll at 22%. This could mean 2025 is a make-or-break year.

SPY Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust trades at $611.79 on Wednesday versus a 52-week range of $493.56 to $611.96, a new high hit earlier in Wednesday’s trading session. The ETF is up 23.2% in the past year.

Read Next:

• Warren Buffett Unfazed By Trump’s Tariff Threats: Oracle Of Omaha Bets On Mexico, Beer

The study was conducted by Benzinga from Feb. 11, 2025 through Feb. 12, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 119 adults.

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