EXCLUSIVE: Could Trump's 'Liberation Day' Reciprocal Tariffs Crash The Stock Market? 48% Say This

The stock market will likely be increasingly volatile heading into Wednesday, as President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are set to be announced on April 2, the so-called "Liberation Day.”

A Benzinga poll finds the tariffs could cause trouble for a stock market that is already down in 2025.

What Happened: Trump has labeled April 2 as "Liberation Day," when he will announce which countries will have tariffs placed on them and for how much.

The decision follows Trump's past threats of placing increased tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Trump has promised to place reciprocal tariffs on other countries to offset trade imbalances with the United States.

Trump recently placed a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars and auto parts that will take effect on April 3. The president spoke out to support the tariffs and the potential for automotive companies to raise prices to offset the costs.

"I couldn't care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars," Trump said in an NBC News interview over the weekend.

Trump highlighted tariffs during his 2024 presidential election campaign and they have been a major talking point since he took over the White House in January.

"The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more," Trump added in his NBC News interview.

Benzinga recently polled readers to see what impact the reciprocal tariffs could have.

"Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, April 2. How will markets react for the rest of the week?" Benzinga asked.

The results were:

• Market crashes: 48%
• Little or no impact: 29%
• Market moves higher: 23%

The poll found that nearly half of the survey respondents believe the market will crash from Wednesday through Friday after Trump's reciprocal tariffs are announced.

The second leading vote-getter was that there would be little or no impact, with 29% saying the market likely wouldn't have a major reaction to Trump's announcement.

Coming in last place was the market moving higher, getting 23% of the vote.

The poll suggests that major market indices like the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, could trade lower in the days following Trump's announcement.

Read Also: Warren Buffett Unfazed By Trump’s Tariff Threats: Oracle Of Omaha Bets On Mexico, Beer

Why It's Important: The poll results follow past polls from Benzinga that tracked readers’ thoughts on tariffs.

Benzinga asked a similar question in February when Trump was threatening tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.

"How will Trump's tariffs affect the stock market?" Benzinga asked.

The results were:

• Weigh down: 59%
• Push higher: 23%
• No real impact: 19%

The majority of respondents said Trump’s tariffs will send the stock market lower. The remaining voters were split nearly even between the stock market going higher as the result of tariffs or the tariffs not having a real impact on stock market returns.

The latest tariffs from Trump could have a large impact on how the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust performs in 2025 and beyond. In 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 21.7%. This was the first year with Trump in office and many sectors saw gains during the year.

A previous Benzinga reader survey asked how high investors thought the SPY could go in 2025, Trump's first year back in the White House.

When asked what they thought the return of the SPY would be in 2025, these were the results:

• 16%+: 26%
• 11% to 15%: 22%
• Will Decline: 22%
• 6% to 10%: 19%
• 0% to 5%: 12%

The poll found that the largest percentage believed that the S&P 500 Index would post gains of at least 16% in 2025. The 11% to 15% range came in second place at 22%.

With tariffs now weighing down the stock market, the gains investors previously forecasted for 2025 might be tough to reach.

SPY Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is down 0.5% to $552.76 on Monday, versus a 52-week trading range of $493.86 to $613.23. The ETF is down 5.8% year-to-date in 2025.

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The study was conducted by Benzinga from March 25, 2025 through March 28, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 141 adults.

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