The Cisco Conundrum

Cisco Systems CSCO has been in the dog house for what seems like ages. While the company's prospects seem bright (albeit slightly dimmed since the beginning of the year) and the story quite compelling, the company just hasn't delivered for the past few quarters. This is a shame because the company has a clear vision and is run be a clear visionary—John Chambers. It is the company that you want to get behind and invest in, but a quick glance at the chart (pure death) makes the act of putting money to work in the name scary at best. Lets take a look at the two major points regarding Cisco Systems: the technical picture and the fundamental picture. As mentioned before, the technicals are downright tragic. For the past year, we see clear signs of mutual and hedge fund buying augmented by earnings released, which send those investors running for cover. No matter how many times investors try to pick the company off of the floor, sellers emerge and push it lower. Most importantly, the trajectory of declines has gotten worse. Whereas the company would rebound above the 50-day in the beginning of the year, sellers are now coming in quicker, first selling on the 50-day, and now on the 20-day. While this does not bode well short-term, this does mean that seller exhaustion could be nearing an end on a longer-term basis. In fact, Cisco is now eyeing the $13.60-14.00 support, which could set the stock up for a multi-year double bottom. Fundamentals: This has always been a saving grace for the company given the strong growth prospects that the company has enjoyed (especially relative to the size of the company). While these metrics have been (and may continue to be) revised lower over the past few quarters, I do believe that the magnitude of earnings revisions is behind CSCO and am comfortable with the current assumptions. Given a 8.72x forward P/E and PEG ratio of 0.876, Cisco is in the value category. So…What to do? Unfortunately, you cant have much confidence buying shares here—neither the techncials, nor the size of the dividend make sense to do so. Your best bet is to do one of two things: wait for shares to come in toward $14.00, or buy a 1x2 put spread with the short contracts on or below $14.00. Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use.