Chipmaker Nvidia Flies Higher But Indicates Local Top May Be In: A Bull, Bear Case

Nvidia Corporation NVDA popped about 1.5% at one point Thursday after TD Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay maintained an Outperform rating on the stock and lifted a price target to $700.

The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker has risen over 8% since Oct. 11, breaking up from a bull flag pattern on the daily chart, which had a measured move of over 10%, indicating further gains could be on the horizon for Nvidia.

The bull flag pattern is created with a sharp rise higher forming the pole, which is followed by a consolidation pattern that brings the stock lower between a channel with parallel lines or into a tightening triangle pattern.

For bearish traders, the "trend is your friend" (until it's not) and the stock may continue downwards within the following channel for a short period of time. Aggressive traders may decide to short the stock at the upper trendline and exit the trade at the lower trendline.

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The Nvidia Chart: On Oct. 5, Nvidia broke up from a bull flag pattern on increasing volume, signaling the pattern was recognized. Since then, the stock has continued to trek higher, consolidating for only one trading day on Oct. 9, when Nvidia printed a bullish inside bar pattern.

• On Thursday, after an initial pop, Nvidia was working to print a bearish shooting star candlestick, which could indicate the local top has occurred and the stock will fall on Friday. The second most likely scenario is that the stock forms another inside bar pattern, which, like the formation on Oct. 9, leans bullish for continuation.
• Because Nvidia has risen for most of the last seven trading days within its uptrend, the stock is likely to retrace over the next few days to at least print another higher low. A retracement is also likely because the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is nearing the 70% mark, which indicates that soon Nvidia will be overbought.
• When Nvidia retraces, bullish traders want to see the stock rebound from the 50-day simple moving average, which is trending at about $448. Bearish traders want to see big bearish volume come in and drop Nvidia down below the 50-day, which would cause shorter-term moving averages to form a bearish cross.
• Nvidia has resistance above at $481.87 and at $502.66 and support below at $439.90 and at $419.38.

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