Coursera AI Strategy Wins Points With Analyst, But Market Jitters Linger

JPMorgan analyst Bryan M. Smilek reiterated the Neutral rating on Coursera, Inc. COUR on Friday, raising the price forecast from $7 to $8.

Yesterday, the company reported first-quarter results where revenues soared 6% year over year to $179.3 million.

Consumer demand appears to be steady and may even offer some resilience in a downturn. However, the analyst added that enterprise spending could come under pressure. Nowadays, companies are reducing learning and development budgets due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Smilek remains optimistic about Coursera’s strategic initiatives, including the rollout of tools like Coach, Course Builder, AI-powered translations, and expanded go-to-market efforts.

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However, the analyst also cautioned that these investments may take time to meaningfully impact revenue growth.

Coursera is guiding for 7% adjusted EBITDA margins in 2025, suggesting around 100 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement as the company works to strike a balance between profitability and continued investment in growth, Smilek writes.

The analyst sees Coursera’s 2025 margin outlook as conservative. Cost controls and $30 million+ in expected savings could boost performance.

While Smilek appreciates Coursera’s strong market position, innovation efforts, and overall strategy, the analyst emphasized the need for consistent execution and improved macro conditions to drive stronger revenue momentum and margin expansion in the coming year.

The analyst raised the 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates by about 3 percent and adjusted EBITDA estimates by around 1 to 2 percent.

Price Action: COUR shares are trading higher by 11% to $8.545 at last check Friday.

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