BP Braces For Profit Hit As Oil Prices Decline

BP p.l.c. BP On Friday offered a preliminary snapshot of its second-quarter performance ahead of its full earnings release scheduled for August 5, 2025. The company anticipates varied results across its businesses, shaped by declining oil prices, robust refining margins, and seasonal demand shifts.

Reported upstream production is expected to increase, driven by higher output from bpx energy in the oil production & operations segment and a modest rise in gas & low carbon energy. Still, weaker realized prices are expected to dampen earnings.

In oil production & operations, earnings could fall by $600 million to $800 million, impacted by pricing delays and production mix in regions such as the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE. The gas & low-carbon energy segment may see a $100 million to $300 million reduction due to declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas prices and average gas trading performance.

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The customers & products segment is forecast to benefit from higher seasonal volumes, improved fuel margins, and refining gains, contributing $300 million to $500 million. A strong oil trading performance also supported this segment.

BP expects a modest reduction in net debt and plans to log post-tax impairment charges between $500 million and $1.5 billion across multiple segments. These will be excluded from its underlying replacement cost profit.

Commodity markets remained mixed. Brent crude averaged $67.88 per barrel in the second quarter, down from $75.73 in the first quarter, and Henry Hub gas prices also declined. However, BP’s refining marker margin climbed to $21.10 per barrel, benefiting downstream operations.

The company noted that its outlook remains subject to ongoing market, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainty. Finalized financial results may differ from current estimates.

Related ETFs include Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE and iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF IEO.

Price Action: BP shares are trading higher by 1.84% to $32.10 premarket at last check Friday.

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