Lucid Q4 Earnings Preview: All Eyes On Lower EV Production, Delivery Guidance

Electric vehicle (EV) company Lucid Group Inc LCID will report fourth-quarter (Q4) financial results after market close on Wednesday.

Here's a look at the key earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Lucid to report fourth-quarter revenue of $178.30 million, according to data from Benzing Pro.

The revenue estimate would be down significantly from last year's fourth-quarter total of $257.71 million. Lucid has missed analysts' estimates for revenue in six straight quarters.

Analysts expect Lucid to report a loss of 29 cents per share, which would be nearly in line with last year's total of a loss of 28 cents per share in the fourth quarter. Lucid has beaten earnings per share estimates in two of the last five quarters.

Lucid already reported Q4 production and delivery figures with 2,391 vehicles produced and 1,734 deliveries. For the full fiscal year, Lucid had 8,428 vehicles produced and 6,001 vehicles delivered.

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What Analysts are Saying: Analysts who weighed in after Lucid's Q3 financial results had Neutral and Sector Perform ratings as tracked by Benzinga.

One of the concerning items for analysts after the third quarter results was Lucid lowering its full-year production guidance to a new range of 8,000 to 8,500 units from previous guidance of 10,000.

Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow was concerned that there weren't meaningful new products to help with Lucid's outlook in the short term.

"Overall, it remains challenging to be constructive on LCID near-term with no new products that will materially alter the growth/margin trajectory of the business until late 2024/early 2025," Jewsikow said.

Key Items to Watch: One of the most talked about items concerning Lucid ahead of its quarterly earnings report is a recently announced $6 million cash bonus for CEO Peter Rawlinson.

The item caught the attention of rival Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Musk recently had a compensation plan voided by a Delaware judge, despite shareholder approval and hitting milestones for the company many thought were impossible.

"His comp is inversely proportionate to performance!" Musk said.

Musk has not shied away from criticism of Lucid or Rawlinson, who was a former Tesla engineer. Once considered to be a “Tesla killer,” Lucid’s delivery and production figures pale in comparison to Tesla’s 2023 1.8 million vehicle production figure.

The bonus was related to the unveiling of the Lucid Gravity SUV in November by Rawlinson and Lucid. Investors and analysts will likely want to hear more about the SUV, which is expected to start production in late 2024. The vehicle could be a catalyst for Lucid but any delays could be a major setback.

Outside of the Gravity, Lucid recently lowered the starting price of the Lucid Air Pure to $69,900 and is including two years of free scheduled maintenance and a $1,000 charging allowance as an incentive to get more vehicle purchasers.

Most investors and analysts will want to hear new guidance from Lucid for 2024 vehicle production and deliveries. Lucid lowered their vehicle guidance several times in 2023 before hitting the year-end totals of 8,428 vehicles produced and 6,001 vehicles delivered.

LCID Price Action: Lucid shares trade at $3.60 versus a 52-week trading range of $2.54 to $10.74. Shares of Lucid are down 65% over the last year.

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