Tesla Q4 Delivery Preview: Will 2024 Stock Gains Hold As Growth Slows?

Tesla Inc TSLA has been a top performing large-cap stock in 2024 with shares up 70% year-to-date, with a large portion of the gains coming after the 2024 presidential election.

The month of January will include fourth-quarter delivery figures and fourth-quarter financial results, putting the stock in the spotlight early in 2025.

Tesla Delivery Estimates: All eyes will be on Tesla later this week with the company expected to report fourth-quarter delivery and production figures on Thursday, Jan. 2.

The company often releases quarterly delivery and production figures on the second day of the following month and with the market open Thursday after the New Year's Day holiday Wednesday, analysts are currently eyeing this day for the official report.

New consensus estimates from analysts provided by Tesla call for the company to report fourth-quarter deliveries of 506,763 units. The estimated total consists of 476,398 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles and 31,755 other vehicles, as reported by Teslarati.

According to Tesla, the estimates are based on input from 26 analysts. The projected fourth-quarter delivery figure of 506,763 units would bring total deliveries for the year to 1,801,709.

Tesla reported a record 1,808,581 deliveries in 2023. The company would need to report deliveries of around 515,000 units in the fourth quarter to beat the 2023 total and show year-over-year growth.

Recent estimates from analysts include Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney estimating fourth-quarter deliveries of 510,000. The analyst has a Neutral rating and $250 price target.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak estimates Tesla will report fourth-quarter deliveries of 515,000, as reported by Teslarati. The analyst has a Sell rating and $226 price target.

Read Also: How Many EVs Has Tesla Delivered, Produced Each Quarter? A Look At The Results Since 2019

Why It's Important: Tesla said it expected its growth rate to be lower for deliveries in 2024 than in past years. The new analyst consensus figures show the company may not post year-over-year growth and see declines in delivery units for the full year.

While this may be expected now after the past three quarterly reports, the official figure could put shares under pressure.

If Tesla is able to beat the consensus estimate it may be the result of huge financing offers and incentives during the final month, which could put pressure on automotive margins.

Tesla is set to report its fourth-quarter financial results later in January, with delivery figures likely to increase focus on key areas such as margins, Tesla Energy, and progress on FSD.

After the delivery and earnings catalyst are over, investors and analysts may want to hear more about what’s ahead like the FSD timeline and potential licensing deals to other automotive companies and a timeline update on robotaxis.

Following Tesla's strong performance in 2024, early January catalysts could either sustain the stock's momentum or quickly set a challenging tone for the rest of the year.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 1% to $413.47 at the time of publication Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 70% year-to-date in 2024.

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