Dollar Tree Q4 Earnings Preview: Visitor Growth, Tariffs, Family Dollar Sale Among Key Items To Watch

Discount retailer Dollar Tree Inc DLTR could highlight increased visitor activity from cost-conscious consumers when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results before the market opens on Wednesday.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Dollar Tree to report fourth-quarter revenue of $8.24 billion. According to data from Benzinga Pro, that’s down from $8.64 billion in last year's fourth quarter.

The company beat analyst estimates in the third quarter. It also beat analyst estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect the company to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.19, down from $2.55 in last year's fourth quarter.

The company’s earnings per share surpassed analyst estimates in the previously reported quarter and six of the last 10 quarters overall.

The company’s guidance calls for fourth-quarter revenue to be between $8.1 billion and $8.3 billion and fourth-quarter earnings per share to be between $2.10 and $2.30.

Key Items to Watch: Dollar Tree's fourth-quarter financials come two weeks after peer company Dollar General DG reported fourth-quarter results. Dollar General beat revenue and earnings per share estimates from analysts.

Placer.ai data suggests that Dollar Tree may have had better visitor traffic growth in the fourth quarter than Dollar General.

Dollar Tree's fourth quarter includes November, December and January. The chain had 6.3% growth in visitors year-over-year in November, beating a 4.6% gain for Dollar General. It also had higher growth in December at +3.4% to +2.2%; and in January at +10.7% to +6.9%.

The report also found that Dollar Tree and Dollar General saw a higher number of shoppers’ visits during the week. The average number of visits per visitor was also higher in the months that will be included in the fourth-quarter financials.

How those visitor gains and trends translate to sales and earnings per share will be a key trend to watch, with dollar stores and discount retailers potentially taking market share from larger retailers.

Another area to watch will be tariffs. Dollar Tree management previously discussed tariffs after third-quarter financial results.

“While the situation remains fluid and the exact nature, scope, and eventual timing of any new tariffs is not yet clear, we are prepared to act on multiple fronts,” Dollar Tree Chief Operating Officer and Interim CEO Mike Creedon said on Dollar Tree’s conference call.

Dollar Tree negotiated lower costs with suppliers in 2018 and 2019 when it last dealt with tariffs, Creedon said. The company also changed product specs and pack sizes, and stopped selling several items altogether.

President Donald Trump's plan for reciprocal tariffs on April 2 involves Canda, Mexico and China. Analysts and investors will likely ask Dollar Tree management how it's again preparing for tariffs.

Creedon said the company’s multi-price strategy — items past the $1 and $1.25 price points — could be a solution.

Dollar Tree could also provide an update on the Family Dollar auction. In February, several private equity companies reportedly expressed interest in acquiring the Family Dollar brand.

Price Action: Dollar Tree stock is down 2% to $68.33 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $60.49 to $137.14. Dollar Tree stock is down 10.7% year-to-date in 2025 and down 46% over the last year.

Dollar General stock trades at $83.87 versus a 52-week trading range of $66.43 to $164.12. Dollar General shares are down 44% over the last year. Yet, the company outperformed Dollar Tree in 2025 with a year-to-date gain of 16.9%.

Read Next: