Costco Wholesale Q3 Earnings Preview: Will Company Discuss Price Increases After Prior Trump Team Backlash?

Retailer Costco Wholesale Corporation COST could provide a look at consumer spending and tariffs when the company reports third-quarter financial results Thursday after market close.

Here is a look at the analyst estimates, what analysts are saying before the results and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Costco to report third-quarter revenue of $63.19 billion, up from $58.52 billion in last year's third quarter according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company beat revenue estimates in the second quarter, but has only beaten analyst estimates in four of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Costco to report third-quarter earnings per share of $4.24, up from $3.78 in last year's third quarter. The company has missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters, while beating estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Analysts Are Saying: After a strong April sales figure from Costco, JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers reiterated an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $1,070 to $1,088.

The analyst said the 7.1% U.S. core comparable sales growth in April was ahead of estimates, despite a calendar-related sales headwind from the Easter timing shift.

The month of April also saw the average transaction size up 2.4% year-over-year and e-commerce sales growth of 13% year-over-year.

Along with the positives were several negatives, including weaker sales in Canada and international markets and less early demand in April for non-food items compared to March.

Horvers said Costco has strong global momentum, is seeing market share gains and has exposure to a potential rebound in big-ticket items. The analyst said Costco is a high-conviction stock pick.

Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman called Costco's March same-store sales "impressive," ahead of the upcoming third-quarter results.

"Costco continues to execute well in this uncertain operating environment," Feldman said.

The analyst reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,100 price target after the March sales figures.

Key Items to Watch: Similar to other retail stocks, investors and analysts will likely be centered on any commentary and guidance that involves tariffs.

Costco was one of the early companies to address tariffs ahead of inauguration with the company discussing potential price increases due to tariffs from President Donald Trump.

“In general, of course, tariffs raise costs. That’s not something that we see as a positive in general," Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip said at the time.

Millerchip said the company had plans in place to prevent possible price increases.

Trump's presidential transition team took exception to the comments from Costco at the time and said Trump's economic and trade policies would make life affordable and more prosperous for the U.S.

Walmart recently reported financial results and said it may have to pass on higher costs to consumers. This comment angered Trump and led to the president telling the retailer to eat the costs.

Costco may have to be cautious in what it says about price increases or face similar pushback from Trump.

The retailer reported positive year-over-year comparable sales for its U.S., Canada and other International segments in the second quarter. Investors and analysts will be watching to see if the momentum continues in the third quarter, along with the e-commerce segment sales.

A Placer.ai report said Costco had visit growth of 2.3% in February, 7.8% in March and 3.4% in April on a year-over-year basis. The third-quarter results will include portions of February and May along with all of March and April.

In the report, Costco's visitor growth was higher than rivals BJ's Wholesale and Sam's Club, which could also indicate some market share gains in the quarter.

Another item investors and analysts could be watching is membership fee revenue. This figure came in at $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up from $1.11 billion in the prior year's second quarter. Costco raised the price of its annual store membership by five dollars in September 2024, a company first membership fee hike since 2017.

While membership fee is a small portion of overall revenue, it is high margin and recurring.

COST Price Action: Costco stock closed Wednesday down 0.46% to $1,013.14 on versus a 52-week trading range of $788.20 to $1,078.24. Costco stock is up 11.4% year-to-date in 2025 and up around 25% over the last year.

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