Netflix Q2 Earnings Preview: 'Squid Game' Lift Is Clear—But What's The Next Blockbuster?

Streaming giant Netflix Inc NFLX is likely to focus on what's to come in the second half of 2025 when the company reports second-quarter financial results Thursday after market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report, and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Netflix to report second-quarter revenue of $11.04 billion, up from $9.56 billion in last year's second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in seven straight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Netflix to report second-quarter earnings per share of $7.06, up from $4.88 in last year's second quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in five straight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters overall.

The company is guiding for second-quarter revenue of $11.04 billion and earnings per share of $6.61.

What Analysts Are Saying: Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich recently said Netflix could see "modest upside" due to the dollar weakening in the second quarter and a likely in-line report.

The analyst reiterated a Buy rating and $1,490 price target ahead of the report.

Ehrlich highlighted the strong 10-day viewership of "Squid Game" season 3, which was a company record.

"The remainder of the 2H slate should continue to build on the success with the return of high profile shows, new releases, as well as live events," Ehrlich said.

KeyBanc analysts said live events, price increases and the growth of the company's advertising business could lead to future growth.

Analysts maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $1,070 to $1,390.

The analysts said Netflix should continue to grow revenue by double-digit percentages in the future.

Along with having growth from live events like sports, the analysts said Netflix is still in the early days of advertising monetization compared to traditional media.

Here are other analyst ratings on Netflix and their price targets:

BMO Capital: Reiterated Outperform rating, raised price target from $1,200 to $1,425
Wedbush: Reiterated Outperform rating with $1,400 price target
Piper Sandler: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $1,150 to $1,400
JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $1,220 to $1,230
Needham: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $1,126 to $1,500
Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $1,000 to $1,100

Key Items to Watch: Lightshed Partners analyst Rich Greenfield has 10 questions for Netflix management ahead of the earnings report, which he shared with newsletter readers.

Among the analyst's questions are Netflix's flat streaming market share over the past year, how the UFC could help Netflix, whether artificial intelligence is important to advertising growth, and for more details on the 2025 second-half and 2026 slate of films.

"We continue to believe producing more compelling movies is Netflix's biggest content unlock over the next five years," Greenfield said.

Netflix no longer breaks out subscriber figures, which means the company's content lineup for the second half of 2025 and guidance could be the biggest factor in moving the stock price.

The streaming giant is likely to highlight its upcoming releases from hit franchises like "Wednesday" and "Stranger Things." The company also has two NFL games coming on Christmas Day, but could provide more details on any other live events that could be key subscriber and advertiser growth drivers going forward.

"We remain optimistic about our 2025 slate with a lineup that includes returning favorites, series finales, new discoveries and unexpected surprises designed to thrill our members," the company said after first quarter results.

Netflix reported revenue growth in each of its key regions in the first quarter, with the UCAN region the highest revenue driver, but among the lowest for growth. Analysts and investors will closely monitor the revenue split by region and identify which areas are growing revenue the fastest.

With investors and analysts already well aware of the big hits like "Wednesday," "Stranger Things," and NFL games coming in the second half, the company may need to provide some new updates or surprises to send shares to new all-time highs.

Among the potential updates and surprises could be the company sharing details on what happens to the “Squid Game” franchise after the season three finale concluded the series. Fans want spinoffs and a U.S. version of the show. While Netflix will highlight the strong viewership of the record-breaking third season, it might be too far in the past for investors and analysts, as the series is currently over and in the rearview mirror.

NFLX Price Action: Netflix stock trades at $1,261.23 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $588.43 to $1,341.15. Netflix stock is up 42% year-to-date in 2025.

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