China Impact of Japan earthquake on China earnings should be limited- Goldman Sachs

gs0No meaningful changes required to earnings forecasts Over the past week since the earthquake hit northeast Japan, our China research team has been in communication with our coverage universe to assess potential earnings impacts. Based on currently available information, we believe Chinese equity earnings are not likely to see significant revisions, because: 1) our Economics team believes China's top-down growth impact is limited as potentially lower oil/commodity prices near term may outweigh negatives from lower exports and supply disruptions from imports; 2) Equity index weightings (especially Hshares) are skewed towards unaffected domestic-facing large-cap sectors like financials and telecom, while slightly more negatively affected sectors like auto or tech are quite small in China; 3) Intra-sector bottom up, only select names may suffer from supply chain issues or Japan-export dependency, while companies may enjoy product substitution benefits at least near-term, or greater rebuilding demand, as offsetting factors. Whats the Worst Case Scenario for Japan.. What Will We Do ??

Exports, component imports and substitution are key factors In the coming weeks/months, some Chinese sectors may see temporary negative impacts from demand disruption (transport, oil, retail) and component supply bottlenecks (tech, auto, machinery), but some may also benefit from some substitution potential or margin relief (steel, F&B, nonnuclear alternative energy). Thereafter, we see greater export potential for some raw materials/energy for reconstruction, with tech and nuclear energy as the areas that may feel lingering impact beyond 1-2 quarters.  Japan earthquake/power supply: Is power shortage the biggest problem facing corporate Japan? Reflexive price action has created opportunities Some Buy-rated names that sold off excessively last week (and show significant upside to our TP) are COSCO Pacific (CL), CEA, Lenovo, Dalian Port, AAC; Neutral-rated Dongfang Electric and TPV Tech are also well below TP. On the flip side, the double-digit surge by Xinjiang Goldwind (H) and China High Speed (both Neutral) may be premature (ASP/volume risks persist despite nuclear substitution benefits).

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