An online world

What does the future hold? If you knew with 100% certainty, your plans would be bombproof. You would have no need for earnings forecasts or market predictions. You'd never have to guess at anything. You'd have no need for dreams or what-if scenarios. Well, fortunately for all involved, that is not the case. We humans will always peer dimly into the future through dreams, predictions, forecasts and trends. And always be surprised and amazed by how the future actually turns out.

So for the fun of it, let's peer into a future where people will live their entire lives online. Google GOOG, Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Amazon AMZN, or some other company that doesn't yet exist will take over the world. The internet universe will become so all-encompassing that almost all types of transactions and interpersonal communications will take place via the web. Shopping, meetings, work, and socializing will no longer take place in “real-life,” or “meatspace”as the cybernerds call it, but rather by sitting in a lounge chair with some kind of device that accesses the internet. It's scary for me to think about because many of us need to connect with other people in some way, whether it be at work, in a store, or at home with your family. But the truth is, we are moving towards a much more “internet dependent” society.

Now we must assume that there are definitely some things that cannot be done online. Production, construction, fabrication, etc… are all things that cannot actually happen online. However, those things could easily be controlled by a computer using highly mechanized robots. Household activities cannot be replicated online, and neither can sports, but it may get to the point where sitting in your house and watching the game feels more real than actually being at the game.

So, where does that leave us? More specifically, where does that leave commercial real estate? Well, the traditional retail space would disappear, as all shopping would take place online. Multi-family dwellings would continue to exist because people would still need a place to live, but most of the middlemen would be cut out of the picture. (Ebay EBAY already claims to sell over 4000 properties a month.) Businesses would no longer need to lease office space, rendering skyscrapers virtually useless. People would, most likely, still want some kind of face to face social interaction, so restaurants, bars, and clubs would still exist, but the commercial real estate market would be drasically altered.

Maybe the commercial real estate world would relocate to the internet and be able to re-position itself in some way, but chances are that most people would have to move on to another industry, one that lives on the internet.

We are obviously years away from something like this happening, if at all, but with the rate at which technology continues to advance, who really knows what could, or will, happen? I guess it's time to get back to some real work, maybe. Daydreaming doesn't get you very far, but at least it opens up your imagination to new possibilities, which can get you further than you have ever imagined.

What do you think about our future? Will it be controlled by the internet, or some other force? Or maybe nothing will really change?

#CRE #finance