Guggenheim: Uber's Pre-IPO Numbers Give Insight On Lyft's Business

What does the ride-hailing landscape look like for newly public Lyft Inc LYFT? Investors have a better idea now that its main competitor Uber is about to IPO, according to Guggenheim. 

The Analyst

Jake Fuller remains Neutral on Lyft. 

The Thesis

Uber filed an S-1 last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its planned NYSE listing.

That document provides several pieces of information that help flesh out a picture of Lyft, Fuller said in a Tuesday note. (See his track record here.) 

Uber’s filing suggests Lyft's domestic market share may be lower than the 39 percent Lyft claims, the analyst said. It’s not clear who is right or wrong, but the numbers Uber claims don’t match up with Lyft's figures, he said. 

The numbers Uber reports work out to Uber notching 136 percent of Lyft's bookings; 119 percent of Lyft's trips number; and revenue that's 185 percent of Lyft's, Fuller said.

Lyft's 39-percent market-share claim would imply that Uber is only 55-percent larger, the analyst said. Even when backing out some of Uber’s numbers to account for its Uber Eats food delivery service, the numbers still don’t mesh, he said. 

Valuation

Lyft continues to trade below its IPO price. " .. Our analysis suggests that it is still discounting a fairly aggressive 10-year revenue and EBITDA scenario," Fuller said. 

Guggenheim would become more constructive on the stock at a share price of about $45, the analyst said. 

Price Action

Lyft shares were trading up by 1.85 percent to $57.15 at the time of publication Tuesday. 

Related Links:

Uber Files For IPO On NYSE, Says Personal Mobility A 'Vast' Market Opportunity

Analyst: Uber Roadshow A 'Dark Shadow' Over Lyft

Photo courtesy of Lyft.