How Amazon's One-Day Shipping Is Raising The Bar To Compete In E-Commerce

Even as investors are skittish about Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN among broader market coronavirus fears, Morgan Stanley says the company's overnight delivery is changing customer tendencies and increasing expectations across the industry for how quickly stuff should get to your door.

The Amazon Analyst

Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman has an Overweight rating on Amazon with a $2,400 price target.

Gutman estimates that about 40% of units shipped by Amazon in the United States were one-day in the fourth quarter, even more impressive considering that number was 0% as recently as the first quarter, and he sees it heading to 50% by the end of 2020.

"In our view, 1-day shipping is another example of AMZN’s successful behavioral modification efforts…in this case as it addressed a consumer friction point holding back certain online purchases (like consumables)," Gutman wrote in a note.

Two Days? Too Long

And now, we've come to expect it. Amazon's success with faster delivery is boosting consumer expectations for delivery times, raising the bar for everyone.

"2-day shipping may seem too slow before we know it," Gutman wrote.

Gutman said the higher bar will force retailers to invest to catch up to Amazon, and noted some, including Walmart Inc WMT, are starting to build one-day offerings. Others being forced to consider the new world of instant gratification include Best Buy Co Inc BBY, which now offers next day free on items over $35, and Home Depot Inc HD, which has next-day options for a fee.

But Amazon has a big head start of 20 to 30 million items deliverable in one day and on logistics, which is likely to be a competitive advantage "for some time," Gutman said.

AMZN Price Action

Amazon was among the stocks hit by fears over the coronavirus outbreak that were causing the overall market to slump on Monday. Amazon shares were trading at $1,996.64, down 4.7% on Monday.

Related Links:

6 Ways Amazon's One-Day Delivery Is Changing Shipping

Walmart's E-Commerce Sales Are Growing But It's Still Not Good Enough