Pfizer Analyst Takes Stock Of Negative Breast Cancer Data, Pharma Giant's 2025 Goals

Pfizer Inc. PFE shares declinded Monday after the company said that a Phase 3 breast cancer treatment study — known as "PALLAS" — is unlikely to hit the primary goal, citing efficacy and futility analysis done by an Independent Data Monitoring Committee.  The study evaluated Ibrance, one of its drugs, with standard adjuvant endocrine therapy in HR+ and HER- in order to test its effectiveness in treating early stage breast cancer.

The Pfizer Analyst

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen maintained an Overweight rating on Pfizer shares with a $53 price target. 

The Pfizer Thesis

The adjuvant opportunity for the breast cancer drug Ibrance is being viewed by investors as a key growth driver for Pfizer, Chen said in a Friday note. (See her track record here.)

The analyst said she expects the consensus sales estimate for Ibrance to come down to reflect a lower opportunity.

Pfizer had earlier said the adjuvant opportunity could double the eligible patient population for Ibrance, she said.

Ibrance is already approved in the U.S. for treating adult patients with HR+, HER- advanced breast cancer.

The Street projects that Ibrance sales will grow from $5 billion in 2019 to $11.5 billion by 2025, Chen said.

The analyst estimates worldwide Ibrance sales of $8.6 billion in 2025, assuming a 33% probability of success for the PALLAS and PENELOPE-B studies.

The PENELOPE-B study is on track to readout by the second half of 2020, she said. 

Yet with mixed data from the PALLAS and a Phase 2 study dubbed PALLET, expectations for the PENELOPE-B study will be modest, Chen said. 

Despite the disappointing news, Pfizer said it remains confident in its ability to deliver on its goal of at least 6% revenue CAGR through 2025, according to Cantor Fitzgerald. 

This assertion will hardly be credible to investors, the analyst said. 

"We think PFE's ability to hit its CAGR target will depend more than ever on its ability to deliver strong growth from its in-line portfolio as well as contributions from the pipeline/new product launches." 

PFE Price Action

At last check, Pfizer shares were sliding 6.69% to $35.58.

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