Citi Provides Color on Medivation

Citi provided color on Medivation MDVN. In a research report published today, Citi discussed the impact of the AFFIRM study on the company's performance. In the report, Citi states, “Scenario #1: Interim is Positive — We view this as the most likely scenario with a 75-80% probability. If the interim efficacy results are positive and over the pre- specified hurdle for stopping the study and safety is not an issue, the trial can be stopped early allowing for NDA submission. And if approved, we believe the drug has a very attractive profile and believe it could reach almost $2B in WW sales by 2017… Under this scenario, we see the stock trading up to ~$30-35… Scenario #2: Interim is Negative, but Continues to Final Analysis — We believe there is a 20-25% probability that this scenario occurs… Although the AFFIRM study would still have a chance of yielding a positive result at final analysis (which would support MDV3100 approval), we believe investors would see Zytiga contamination as more of an issue in the final analysis and we could see the stock potentially falling to ~$13-15, all else equal.” At the moment, Citi has a Buy rating and a price target of $35 placed on the company's stock. On Friday, MDVN added 0.5% to its value to end the week at $22.