Myokardia Analysts See Mavacamten As Blockbuster Opportunity For Bristol-Myers Squibb

Myokardia Inc MYOK announced Monday a definitive agreement to be bought by Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY.

The Myokardia Analysts: Wedbush analyst David Nierengarten downgraded Myokardia from Outperform to Neutral and raised the price target from $127 to $225.

Wells Fargo Securities analyst John Birchenough downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight and increased the price target from $133 to $225.

Wedbush Sees Long-Term Opportunity In Mavacamten: Given Bristol-Myers Squibb's strong presence in the cardiovascular space with Eliquis, the addition of Myokardia's first-in-class myosin ATPase inhibitor mavacamten is complementary to the former's portfolio, Nierengarten said in a Tuesday downgrade note.

The asset should provide a long-term opportunity, the analyst said. 

With an NDA for mavacamten in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, or HCM, set for submission by the first quarter of 2021, a commercial launch is likely by the end of 2021 or early 2022, he said. 

Bristol-Myers Squibb will also find additional opportunities with mavacamten in non-obstructive HCM and targeted heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, Nierengarten said.

"We expect the deal to go forward and do not see competing bids or regulatory hurdles as likely to occur." 

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Analyst Says Mavacamten Worth $3B: Myokardia is focused on developing precision medicines for genetic heart disease, with its lead myosin modulator mavacamten awaiting regulatory filing in obstructive HCM and also being evaluated in non-obstructive HCM, and HFpEF, Birchenough said in a Monday downgrade note. 

Another Phase 2 asset — danicamtiv — is being evaluated for dilated cardiomyopathy and broader heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, the analyst said.

Wells Fargo's peak sales estimate for mavacamten in obstructive HCM and non-obstructive HCM combined is $3 billion, he said. 

"With our estimate of $3B in peak sales for lead cardiac drug mavacamten, we view valuation at >4x peak sales as compelling and unlikely to be exceeded."

MYOK Price Action: After rallying by about 58% Monday, Myokardia shares were trading 0.22% higher at $220.82 ahead of the close Tuesday.

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